Moody’s Ratings has revised Nigeria’s sovereign credit outlook from stable to positive, while affirming the country’s long-term foreign and local currency issuer ratings at B3, citing stronger external buffers, improved foreign exchange market conditions and sustained economic reforms.
The Federal Ministry of Finance, in a statement issued in Abuja on Saturday, August 29, 2026, said the ratings action reflects the impact of the Federal Government’s macroeconomic and fiscal reforms over the past three years.
Key Highlights
- Moody’s changed Nigeria’s outlook from stable to positive.
- The agency affirmed Nigeria’s B3 sovereign credit rating.
- Nigeria’s current account surplus is projected at 6.1% of GDP in 2026.
- Foreign exchange reserves rose to $53.30 billion as of August 26, 2026.
- Real GDP growth reached 4% in 2025, according to the assessment cited by the government.
- Headline inflation fell to 15.4% in July 2026, from 25.3% a year earlier.
- The development follows Nigeria’s recent improved assessments by FTSE Russell, S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings.
Moody’s Cites Stronger External Position
According to the Finance Ministry, Moody’s attributed the positive outlook to a stronger external position supported by sizeable current account surpluses, rising foreign exchange reserves, improved functioning of the foreign exchange market and more effective monetary policy transmission.
The agency projected that Nigeria’s current account surplus would widen to about 6.1% of GDP in 2026.
Nigeria’s gross external reserves have also increased significantly over the past year. Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria cited by the ministry put the reserves at $53.30 billion as of August 26, 2026.
Moody’s also pointed to stronger-than-expected economic growth, with real GDP expanding by about 4% in 2025, compared with earlier projections of around 3%.
The agency expects economic growth to remain at a similar level through 2027, supported by activity in the non-oil sector and increased oil production.
Inflation has also moderated, with headline inflation falling to 15.4% in July 2026, compared with 25.3% in July 2025.
Nigeria Records More Positive Global Assessments
The Moody’s decision comes shortly after FTSE Russell confirmed Nigeria’s return to Frontier Market status.
FTSE Russell announced on August 27 that Nigeria would be reclassified from “Unclassified” to “Frontier Market”, effective from the opening of trading on September 21, 2026.
The latest Moody’s assessment also follows S&P Global Ratings’ upgrade of Nigeria to B from B- in May 2026, while Fitch Ratings affirmed Nigeria’s B rating with a stable outlook.
The Finance Ministry said the assessments from the major international agencies indicate a more favourable view of Nigeria’s economic reform programme.
Oyedele: Reforms Restoring Economic Stability
The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, described Moody’s positive outlook as an important validation of the government’s economic reforms.
Oyedele pointed to the removal of the petrol subsidy, foreign exchange reforms and tax reforms as key measures taken by the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
He said the reforms were aimed at strengthening Nigeria’s economic fundamentals through higher reserves, a stronger external position, moderating inflation and improved monetary policy transmission.
“Our medium-term ambition is to place Nigeria firmly on the path to investment grade,” Oyedele said.
He added that achieving that objective would require continued improvement in domestic revenue mobilisation, spending efficiency and debt affordability.
According to the minister, the government’s objective is to sustain reforms that can reduce Nigeria’s cost of capital, attract private investment and support broader economic growth.
Government Lists Next Reform Priorities
The Federal Ministry of Finance said the government would continue to focus on measures aimed at strengthening Nigeria’s credit profile.
The priorities include deepening domestic revenue mobilisation through tax reforms and improved administration, maintaining a disciplined and transparent foreign exchange regime, strengthening public debt management and improving debt affordability.
The government also plans to maintain fiscal discipline in collaboration with state governments while advancing structural reforms aimed at supporting non-oil growth and diversifying government revenue.
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Moody’s Signals Potential for Further Upgrade
The ministry said Moody’s assessment indicates that Nigeria could secure a further rating upgrade if the recent improvement in the country’s external position is sustained.
The agency also identified stronger government revenue mobilisation as a potential factor that could support an improved credit rating.
The Federal Government said both areas would remain central to its economic strategy as Nigeria seeks to improve its sovereign credit standing and move towards investment-grade status.
