Dr. Bright Sekoni, founder of MyAudacia, made a bold prediction about Nigeria’s currency, suggesting that the NGN/USD exchange rate could drop to as low as 1 USD to N200 or N220. This optimistic outlook is tied to Nigeria’s reduced dependence on the U.S. dollar, primarily driven by advancements in the country’s fuel production and reduction in fuel importation.
Nigeria currently spends about $18 billion annually on fuel imports, which has been the primary factor causing the imbalance in the NGN/USD exchange rate. However, two major developments are set to change this dynamic: the launch of the Dangote Refinery and the revitalization of the Port Harcourt Refinery.
With these refineries fully operational, Nigeria will significantly reduce its reliance on imported fuel and, in the long run, may even eliminate fuel imports altogether. This reduction in fuel imports will help stabilize the country’s trade balance, reducing the pressure on the naira.
In addition to reducing fuel imports, these refineries will produce critical materials such as polypropylene, a major component in the manufacturing of products like packaging materials, automotive parts, household items, and medical devices. Nigeria’s dependence on polypropylene imports has kept the country tied to the U.S. dollar for a wide array of everyday goods.
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Dr. Sekoni explains the importance of polypropylene: “Polypropylene is used for packaging, yogurt containers, car parts, home plumbing materials, and even medical devices like syringes and surgical instruments. By producing this material domestically, Nigeria can meet its own demand and potentially start exporting.”
By reducing the need for fuel and polypropylene imports, Nigeria can begin to balance its trade, which could lead to an improved exchange rate. Dr. Sekoni projects that, with these developments, the NGN/USD rate could reach N200 to N300 per dollar. Even with more conservative estimates, the rate could stabilize around N950 to the dollar, with fuel prices dropping below N600 per liter.
While these projections are speculative, Dr. Sekoni highlights that regardless of whether these predictions are realized, Nigeria is on the verge of significant economic transformation. “Those who sit and wait for things to improve will suffer,” he warns. He stresses the importance of individuals seizing this opportunity to participate in Nigeria’s economic growth.
