As Nigeria edges toward the 2027 general elections, a quiet storm brews beneath the surface of its political landscape. President Bola Tinubu, master tactician and veteran political player, is orchestrating a wide-reaching realignment aimed at securing a second term.
From wooing governors of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to recalibrating alliances in the North, Tinubu’s strategy is reshaping the chessboard well before voters head to the polls.
PDP Governors in Tinubu’s Orbit
At the center of the unfolding drama are three PDP governors—Umo Eno (Akwa Ibom), Sheriff Oborevwori (Delta), and Peter Mbah (Enugu)—who are reportedly leaning toward supporting Tinubu’s re-election, whether openly or in quiet acquiescence.
Governor Eno, in particular, has thrown down the gauntlet. His recent declaration of support for Tinubu sent ripples across the opposition. Declaring Akwa Ibom a “unity state” comprising both PDP and APC supporters, Eno’s move is being interpreted by analysts as a calculated bid to secure his own second term—and, just as crucially, to ease the return of Senate President Godswill Akpabio to the upper legislative chamber in 2027.
Sources close to the matter say there’s a “gentleman’s pact” in motion: deliver your state to Tinubu in 2027, and enjoy the full weight of federal support for re-election.
Delta and Enugu governors, Sheriff Oborevwori and Peter Mbah, are reportedly entertaining similar calculations. And despite internal wrangling with FCT Minister Nyesom Wike, suspended Rivers State Governor Siminalayi Fubara is still being courted by the APC.
“Only one PDP governor might miss out due to state-level conflicts,” a party insider told this publication, emphasizing how deep the cross-party conversations have become.
Northern Equation: A Delicate Balancing Act
Tinubu’s historic 2023 win owed much to northern votes—62% of his total, in fact. But that northern bulwark is now showing signs of strain. Rising insecurity, political fragmentation, and a resurgence of ethno-regional sentiment are pushing the president’s camp into action.
A pivotal London meeting—brokered by Senate President Akpabio—is said to be in the works, involving Tinubu, a key opposition figure from Kano, and a former president. The high-stakes diplomacy is geared toward shoring up Tinubu’s northern stronghold ahead of 2027.
The most explosive element? Former Kano Governor and 2023 NNPP presidential candidate, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso. Tinubu is reportedly offering him a path back to national relevance via the APC, a move that has unsettled the party’s old guard.
APC National Chairman Abdullahi Ganduje, a long-time rival of Kwankwaso, and Deputy Senate President Barau Jibrin are both wary. Their supporters fear being edged out in a bid to accommodate a defector whose grassroots clout in Kano could tip the balance. “If Kwankwaso returns, it could mean sacrificing some of our most loyal lieutenants,” warned one APC insider.
South-East Surprise: Ohanaeze’s Embrace
In a surprising pivot, the Ohanaeze Ndigbo, apex Igbo socio-political group, has pledged support for Tinubu’s administration following the Supreme Court’s affirmation of his victory. The endorsement is notable, considering the region’s overwhelming support for Labour Party’s Peter Obi in 2023.
This change may reflect political pragmatism—or a deeper realignment. Either way, it marks a potential inroad for Tinubu into a region historically resistant to APC’s influence.
Read Also: Tinubu’s reforms signpost economic hope for Nigerians – APC Chieftain
Northern Elders: A Split House
Not all is well in Tinubu’s northern courtship. The Northern Elders Forum (NEF), long a bellwether of regional opinion, remains undecided. Spokesman Hakeem Baba-Ahmed has hinted at a coming showdown, promising a definitive position within six months.
Meanwhile, the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) remains neutral, choosing caution over commitment. In contrast, the Arewa Think Tank (ATT) has gone all-in, publicly endorsing Tinubu and dismissing dissenters as sore losers “creating confusion after failing to clinch power.”
Security and Suspicion
Political instability is rarely just about politics. Recent spikes in violence across Plateau, Benue, and parts of the North Central have prompted allegations of sabotage. The ATT has even suggested a “foreign-backed plot” to undermine Tinubu’s government—drawing eerie parallels with the 2015 build-up that saw insecurity weaponized against President Goodluck Jonathan’s re-election bid.
Whether these claims hold water or serve as political smokescreens remains unclear. What is certain is that insecurity, perception, and propaganda are once again critical campaign tools.
The Opposition’s Moment of Truth
The PDP faces its most serious identity crisis since 2015. Internal disunity, absent leadership, and an exodus of key players have left the party struggling for relevance. If the rumored defections materialize, it may not have enough time—or cohesion—to mount a credible 2027 campaign.
“If we lose more governors, we might as well start preparing for 2031,” a senior PDP member admitted, frustrated by what they describe as “rudderless leadership.”
A One-Horse Race?
If the current trend continues, Nigeria could be heading toward a one-horse presidential race, with Tinubu galloping ahead. With a combination of incumbency power, strategic alliances, and deft political maneuvering, the president is clearing the board—one piece at a time.
Still, wildcards linger: Will the South-East’s quiet shift become a full embrace?
Can the North rally behind another candidate, perhaps Atiku or Kwankwaso?
Will PDP act decisively to halt its disintegration?
For now, the only certainty is uncertainty. But make no mistake: the race for 2027 has begun—and Tinubu is already several moves ahead.
