With less than 50 days to the 2026 US midterm elections, a new New York Times/Siena University poll has found Democratic congressional candidates leading their Republican counterparts 51% to 43% among likely voters.
The poll, released on September 15, found that President Donald Trump’s approval rating stood at 38%, while voters also expressed concerns about the economy and cost of living. Democrats held an advantage over Republicans on several issues, including healthcare, immigration and the cost of living.
Key Highlights
- Democrats lead Republicans 51% to 43% among likely voters on the generic congressional ballot.
- President Donald Trump’s approval rating stands at 38% in the poll.
- Democrats hold a 60% to 36% advantage over Republicans on healthcare.
- Democrats lead Republicans 52% to 45% on immigration.
- Democrats have a 51% to 43% advantage on the cost of living.
- The survey covered 1,503 likely voters between September 8 and 13, with a margin of error of approximately 2.9 percentage points.
Democrats lead Republicans in 2026 midterm poll
The 2026 US midterm poll asked likely voters which party’s candidate they would support for Congress in their district.
Fifty-one per cent selected the Democratic candidate, compared with 43% who chose the Republican candidate.
The eight-point difference reflects national voter preferences measured by the survey. It does not, by itself, determine which party will control the House of Representatives or Senate because congressional races are decided in individual districts and states.
The poll was conducted by The New York Times and Siena University from September 8 to 13 among 1,503 likely voters nationwide. The reported margin of error for the likely-voter sample was plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
Trump approval rating stands at 38%
The survey found that 38% of voters approved of Trump’s performance as president, while a majority disapproved.
The result comes as voters express concerns about economic conditions and the cost of living, issues that could influence how they assess candidates and parties ahead of the November elections.
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Democrats lead on healthcare, immigration and cost of living
The poll also measured which party voters trust more to handle several major policy issues.
Democrats held their largest advantage on healthcare, with 60% of voters saying they trusted Democrats compared with 36% for Republicans.
On immigration, Democrats led 52% to 45%, while they held a 51% to 43% advantage on the cost of living.
The results indicate that the parties’ standing varies depending on the issue voters consider most important.
Poll does not predict congressional control
Although the 2026 US midterm poll shows a national advantage for Democratic congressional candidates among the surveyed likely voters, the result should not be treated as a forecast of the eventual distribution of congressional seats.
House elections are conducted across individual congressional districts, while Senate elections are held on a state-by-state basis. Candidate quality, turnout, local issues and individual state and district contests can all affect the final results.
The November elections will determine the composition of Congress for the next congressional term. For more updates on this and other global stories, follow us on X.
