US intelligence assessments have warned that Russia could test NATO’s resolve by launching an attack against one of the alliance’s member states as early as this autumn.
According to the assessment, the potential Russian action could range from a cyberattack to a limited military operation, including a possible ground invasion of a NATO ally.
US officials reportedly believe such an attack could occur anytime between autumn 2026 and 2029, raising fresh concerns over the security of NATO’s eastern flank and the alliance’s ability to respond collectively.
The intelligence warning comes as the United States faces shortages in some critical ammunition stocks that could be required in the event of a major confrontation with Russia or China.
Analysts cited in reports on the assessment said Russian President Vladimir Putin could seek to exploit divisions within NATO and test whether the United States would intervene militarily to defend an allied country.
Heather Conley, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said the key question would be how Washington responds if Russia were to attack a NATO member.
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She said challenging NATO’s credibility and creating divisions between the United States and its European allies had long been among Moscow’s strategic objectives.
US officials had previously assessed that Russia was unlikely to directly provoke NATO while its military remained heavily engaged in the war in Ukraine.
However, that assessment has reportedly changed this year amid growing pressure on Putin to achieve progress in the conflict.
Russia has suffered significant battlefield casualties, while Ukrainian drone attacks have increasingly targeted Russian energy infrastructure and other strategic sites.
Moscow has also previously been accused of testing NATO’s defences, including incidents involving Russian missiles and drones entering or affecting the territory of alliance members.
In one such incident, Russian drone debris damaged a property in Poland, while another Russian drone reportedly struck a residential building in the Romanian city of Galati.
Meanwhile, concerns have grown over the readiness of the US military following the depletion of some weapons stocks used to support Ukraine and during its conflict with Iran.
US officials have reportedly identified shortages involving weapons such as Precision Strike Missiles, Army Tactical Missile Systems and Stinger surface-to-air missiles.
The latest intelligence assessment is therefore likely to intensify debate in Washington and across Europe over NATO’s military preparedness and the alliance’s ability to deter any potential Russian attack.
