Nigeria’s economy has received a major vote of confidence from the International Monetary Fund, which has raised its growth forecast for the country to 4.4 percent in 2026, pointing to stronger macroeconomic conditions and sustained reform momentum.
The revised projection was published in the IMF’s January 2026 World Economic Outlook Update titled Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces, released on Monday. The new figure marks a 0.2 percentage point increase from the Fund’s October 2025 forecast and places Nigeria on a firmer expansion path over the next two years.
According to the IMF, Nigeria’s growth trajectory shows steady improvement, rising from 4.1 percent in 2024 to an estimated 4.2 percent in 2025, before reaching 4.4 percent in 2026. The Fund said the upward revision reflects better policy coordination, gradual macroeconomic stabilisation, and ongoing structural reforms.
The improved outlook for Nigeria aligns with broader trends across sub-Saharan Africa, where economic growth is projected to reach 4.6 per cent in both 2026 and 2027. The IMF attributed the regional rebound to tighter macroeconomic management and reform efforts across several key economies.
At the global level, the Fund projected economic growth of 3.3 percent in 2026, highlighting continued resilience despite lingering uncertainties. It noted that the global economy is being shaped by opposing forces, with disruptions from trade policy shifts and geopolitical tensions offset by rising investment in technology and artificial intelligence, particularly in North America and parts of Asia.
For Nigeria, energy prices remain a critical variable in the 2026 outlook. The IMF projected that global energy commodity prices will decline by about 7 percent next year, largely due to subdued demand. However, oil prices are expected to remain supported by what the Fund described as a soft price floor, driven by coordinated production controls by OPEC+ and increased crude stockpiling by China.
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Despite the more optimistic forecast, the IMF cautioned that risks remain skewed to the downside. It highlighted escalating geopolitical tensions in regions such as the Middle East and Ukraine, renewed trade disputes and protectionist policies, and persistently high public debt and fiscal deficits, all of which could put pressure on long-term interest rates and global financial stability.
To sustain the projected growth, the Fund urged Nigerian authorities to rebuild fiscal buffers and accelerate structural reforms. It stressed that central bank independence remains essential for macroeconomic stability, particularly in an environment of heightened global volatility. The IMF also advised that any discretionary fiscal support should be narrowly targeted and time-bound to prevent long-term fiscal strain.
The Fund concluded that Nigeria’s ability to achieve its 2026 growth target will depend on consistent policy implementation and the country’s resilience to both domestic and external shocks as the global economy continues to adjust.
Based on the January 2026 outlook, the IMF said the global recovery remains intact but fragile, increasingly reliant on technology-driven investment, while many regions continue to grapple with debt pressures, trade restrictions, and geopolitical uncertainty.
