Their strengths, weaknesses, Thirteen aspirants are presently jostling to get the presidential ticket of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
Before collection of expression of interest forms, they have engaged in subtle consultations across sections of the country ahead of the May 28-29 presidential primary.
POLITICS EDITOR, TUNDE OPALANA examines the strength and weaknesses of the aspirants to scale the hurdle.
A former Vice President of Nigeria, retired Deputy Comptroller General of the Nigeria Customs Service, businessman and presidential candidate of the PDP in the 2019 general election.
Atiku, no doubt is a leading contender. He has his followers across all the six geopolitical zones and influence among top notchers of the party.
Should the party throw the ticket open, other aspirants may have him to contend with in all the zones. In the North East, he is definitely the man to beat.
But, his chances may be limited in Bauchi State where Governor Bala Mohammed is also contesting and in Borno where another contestant, Dr. Mohammed Hayatu-Deen comes from.
While Atiku may lead others in the North Central, he will play second to Aminu Tambuwal in the North West. Atiku will not have it smooth in the South South and South East because some of those that supported him in 2019 are either in the race now or rooting for other aspirants.
His weakness is in his age. Though still looking agile, agitation for a younger and more vibrant candidate may count against him. Should the party zone it’s ticket to the South, he may have had his last chance of ever seeking the PDP ticket for the presidential election.
Aminu Waziri Tambuwal The Governor of Sokoto State has age on his side. His youthful look, vibrance and political exposure as former Speaker, House of Representatives endears him to many as preferable candidate. If the level of consultations is the yardstick to pick candidate, Tambuwal should have a leverage.
He has consulted widely across current and former members of different organs of the party. As a sitting governor and chairman of PDP Governors Forum, he is seen to be having a considerable support of some of the governors.
Tambuwal, however, may have to share the governors support with other interested persons like; Nyesom Wike, Udom Emmanuel and Bala Mohammed.
Also, coming from the North West geopolitical zone, same with the incumbent President, Muhammadu Buhari, this may stand against his chances. Bukola Saraki Former Senate President and two terms Governor of Kwara State is intellectually strong, very mobile, urbane and a political maverick and qualified for the top job.
Upwardly mobile and coming from a political household, Saraki has associates across zones and he still look youthful and agile. Like Tambuwal, he has done considerable level of consultations with assurances of support Saraki’s major weakness might be his coming from the North Central zone.
Though bouncing back to reckoning after he was roundly defeated at home in 2019, the PDP structure in Kwara state cannot be said to be the same he commanded before the last election.
Also, Saraki at the primaries may not enjoy the full complementary support of senators which he enjoyed when he was a sitting Senate President.
Nyesom Wike The Rivers State governor started the prozoning campaign and fervently pursued same to the discountenance of northern aspirants.
Wike’s influence in the South South and South East is profound and can be used to advantage.
His fellow governors of Abia, Enugu, Oyo and others are with him, while he has the PDP machinery in Edo and Cross River in his palm.
If his romance with Gov. Seyi Makinde is something to hold on to, Wike can make an inroad into the South West for delegates support.
He may have to contend with any aspirant being supported by former Ayodele Fayose in Ekiti State Though he has limited chance in the entire north because of his opposition to northern candidates, whatever alliance he has with the Bauchi state governor, Bala Mohammed, may spring few delegates votes for him from the north.
Wike’s strong personality and political sagacity might be his undoing as there is apprehension among party leaders that he might be a hard nut to crack as President. Bala Mohammed Governor of Bauchi State and former Federal Capital Territory minister, Bala Abdulkadir Mohammed is also an anti- zoning campaigner.
He is a complete party man who has stayed back in the PDP through thick and thin. He is influential and has handled important national assignments for the party.
Aside his personal aspiration, Bala is said to be exploring the option of teeming up with Wike to get support across the southern flank of the party and to muscle support for his ally in the North East. Bala has two eminent contenders from the North East zone in person of Atiku from Adamawa and Hayatu-Deen from Borno.
He may not be able to win 40 percent of votes his stronghold. Likewise, his chances in the North West is limited because of Tambuwal’s interest while the North Central is an harvest ground for all northern aspirants.
In the entire South, Bala can only win delegates sponsored by his political allies such as Wike.
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Peter Obi Former governor of Anambra State, Peter Obi ran on a joint presidential ticket with Atiku in 2019 and has remain steadfast in the party. Obi no doubt, is the leading aspirant from the South East.
He maintains his 2019 popularity not only among Igbos in the zone but Igbo nationals across the country.
A lot of Nigerians believe in his integrity, being one of very few former governors that have not faced anti – corruption charges after leaving office.
A former governor of Ekiti State, Ayo Fayose openly declared that should Igbos across the country throw their weight behind Peter Obi, he may win the presidency, particularly if the ticket is zoned to the South.
However, there is thick speculation that Obi joined the presidential race in anticipation of negotiating a vice presidential position like he did with Atiku in 2019. Anyim Pius Anyim Former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, former Senate President, Anyim has a rich political credential for the PDP presidency.
Anyim, from Ebonyi State can come second to Obi if the ticket is zoned to the South East. He does not have the backing of major stakeholders in the PDP Governors Forum and the National Assembly caucus.
The defection of governor Dave Umahi from PDP to APC has affected the unity of the party in Ebonyi. This in turn has limited the level of influence Anyim weild in Ebonyi PDP. Some analysts have suggested that Anyim ventured into the race to negotiate a position in the PDP government should the party win in 2023.
Sam Ohuambuwa Industrialist from Abia State, Ohuambuwa is a neophyte in politics but thinks he has what it takes to govern Nigeria.
He has no political structure but he has a politician brother in the person of Senator Mao Ohuambuwa, whose structure, if any, he may want to leverage on. His coming from the South East may be a disservice to his ambition because of the presence of Obi and Pius Anyim in the race.
Mohammed Hayatu-Deen The Borno born economist of repute has been in the corridors of power as economic adviser to three former Presidents of Nigeria and former chairman of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group.
His involvement in political contest though not deep, some people that believe in him vow is an edge that he can draw from his deep knowledge in management and boardroom politics in governance. Atiku’s influence in the North East may stiffle Hayatu-deen’s little influence in the zone. While, outside the North East, the billionaire seems to have little or no political influence.
Udom Emmanuel The Governor of Akwa Ibom State is a tested politician who exerts influence among other governors in the party. Apart from accepting the expression of interest forms bought for him by members of the Brekete Family in Abuja, the governor has not made any strong statement about his presidential ambition.
However, he may whittle down the overbearing hold of Wike on the South South, if he is serious about contesting. But rumour is rife that Emmanuel is strategically positioning himself as a beautiful bride to be court as running mate by any northern candidate that emerges.
