The Central Bank of Nigeria has projected a brighter outlook for the country’s economy in 2026, forecasting stronger growth driven by ongoing reforms, improved investor confidence, and relative macroeconomic stability.
The apex bank disclosed this in its latest Macroeconomic Outlook report, which provides projections on economic growth, inflation, fiscal performance, and the external sector for the year ahead. The report is themed “Consolidating Macroeconomic Stability amid Global Uncertainty.”
According to the CBN, Nigeria’s economy is expected to grow by 4.49 percent in 2026, an improvement from the estimated 3.89 percent growth recorded in 2025. The bank attributed the projected expansion to the impact of structural reforms, better performance in the non-oil sector, and improved crude oil production levels.
The report notes that increased investor confidence and a more stable macroeconomic environment are beginning to yield measurable gains, particularly outside the oil sector, which has long dominated the economy.
On inflation, the CBN acknowledged that price pressures remain high but expressed optimism that inflation will moderate significantly in 2026. It projected an average inflation rate of 12.94 percent, driven by easing food and energy prices, improved supply conditions, and the delayed effects of the bank’s tight monetary policy measures.
The apex bank said closer coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities has helped stabilise prices and anchor inflation expectations, creating space for gradual policy adjustments aimed at supporting sustainable economic growth.
On the external sector, the CBN projected continued stability in the foreign exchange market, supported by higher oil revenues, increased diaspora remittances, stronger non-oil exports, and improved domestic refining capacity.
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External reserves are expected to rise to about 51 billion dollars in 2026, while the current account surplus is also projected to expand on the back of stronger exports and increased capital inflows.
Fiscal conditions are also expected to improve, buoyed by deeper implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act, broad-based tax reforms under the Nigeria Tax Act 2025, and stronger public financial management practices. However, the bank cautioned that public debt is projected to rise slightly, stressing the need for prudent borrowing and strict adherence to fiscal sustainability rules.
Despite the optimistic projections, the Central Bank warned that risks remain. These include geopolitical tensions, volatility in global oil prices, climate-related shocks, and potential disruptions to crude oil production.
The CBN reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining price stability, deepening foreign exchange reforms, strengthening the financial system, and supporting sustainable economic growth through data-driven and forward-looking policy decisions.
