Nigeria’s Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, has admitted that the economic reforms introduced by the Tinubu administration have imposed significant hardship on households and businesses.
Oyedele, however, defended the reforms, arguing that they were necessary to prevent an even deeper economic crisis.
The minister spoke on Wednesday at a media briefing where he presented the federal government’s reform scorecard, assessing the impact of policies implemented since June 2023.
The reforms, which included the removal of petrol subsidy and the unification and liberalisation of the foreign exchange market, triggered a sharp depreciation of the naira, rising prices and higher borrowing costs.
“Those decisions came at a real cost, and we are not here to pretend otherwise,” Oyedele said. “Prices rose. The naira adjusted sharply. Households and businesses felt it, and many still do.”
He said the scorecard is designed to give Nigerians a broader assessment of the reforms by examining both their costs and what the government believes they prevented.
“What we want to do today is put the whole picture in front of you, the Nigerian people — what those reforms cost, what they have achieved and, just as importantly, what they prevented,” he said.
According to the minister, the scorecard contains 25 indicators across five areas, including fiscal sustainability, external stability, investment climate, social impact, growth and productivity.
The assessment compares Nigeria’s economic position before the reforms with its current position and a projected “no-reform” scenario — an estimate of what the government believes could have happened if the policies in place before 2023 had continued.
Oyedele said the counterfactual scenario is necessary because comparing prices and other economic indicators before and after the reforms alone would not provide a complete picture.
“It is harder to see what did not happen,” he said, arguing that the government’s assessment sought to quantify the potential economic damage that could have occurred if the reforms had been delayed.
On the foreign exchange market, Oyedele said the previous system had become unsustainable and had encouraged arbitrage and corruption.
“We are talking about an exchange rate system that had become a source of arbitrage, destruction and corruption, rather than stability,” he said.
He also defended the removal of the petrol subsidy, arguing that the policy had largely benefited rent-seekers rather than ordinary Nigerians.
The minister said the savings generated from the reforms had increased resources available to the federation, while the Federal Government had also increased revenue from government-owned entities.
He said the additional resources were being used to finance higher wages, debt servicing, infrastructure and other government expenditure.
Oyedele cited wage adjustments and the increase in the national minimum wage from N30,000 to N70,000 as evidence that part of the additional fiscal resources was being channelled towards workers.
He also listed student loans, cash transfers, subsidised mortgages and agricultural support among measures introduced to cushion the effects of the reforms.
The minister said the government had increased spending on strategic infrastructure while continuing to meet its external debt obligations.
However, he acknowledged that the naira’s depreciation had significantly increased the cost of servicing foreign-currency debt.
“If we’re paying $1m before in interest on our foreign debts, it is still the same $1m, but instead of N460, it’s now N1,415,” he said. “You don’t negotiate, you don’t delay. You pay because delay or default have consequences.”
Oyedele also claimed that the reforms had improved the ability of state governments to meet their salary and pension obligations.
He said 27 states had previously struggled to pay salaries and pensions, whereas the government’s assessment now puts the figure at zero.
Despite highlighting what he described as gains from the reforms, Oyedele stressed that the scorecard was not intended to portray the policies as an unqualified success.
“We are being honest about the cost. We are not saying all of it is rosy,” he said.
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“A scorecard that only lists wins is not a scorecard; it’s a campaign leaflet, and we did not come here to give you one.”
The minister acknowledged that the monetary policy rate had risen sharply and that the price of petrol had increased substantially since the reforms began.
“Petrol at the pump had risen from roughly N185 a litre to between N1,100 and it is a major felt cost, and I will not stand here and tell you otherwise,” Oyedele said.
He nevertheless maintained that the central question should not only be how much Nigerians had paid for the reforms, but also what the country might have faced if the previous policies had remained in place.
Oyedele said the reform scorecard and supporting figures would be made available through the Ministry of Finance for journalists, editors and independent analysts to scrutinise the government’s methodology and figures.
“You can verify. You can validate,” he said.
