Nigeria’s political landscape has entered a new phase following the conclusion of party primaries ahead of the 2027 general elections, but instead of providing clarity, the exercises have exposed deep fractures within several political parties and set the stage for what could become one of the most contentious electoral cycles in the country’s democratic history.
While the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) emerged from its primary largely united behind President Bola Tinubu’s bid for a second term, the opposition parties are confronting a different reality. Internal disputes, competing claims to candidacies, factional leadership battles and legal uncertainties have overshadowed what should have been a critical milestone in preparations for the elections.
At the centre of the unfolding political drama are the African Democratic Congress (ADC), the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the Labour Party (LP), and several state-level political structures now grappling with parallel candidates and rival factions.
With the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) set to begin receiving names of candidates later this month, political parties are racing against time to resolve disputes, reconcile aggrieved members and finalise strategic alliances that could determine the outcome of the elections.
Opposition’s Search for Unity Faces Early Test
For many analysts, the conclusion of the primaries marks only the beginning of a more complex political contest.
Historically, Nigerian elections have often been influenced as much by post-primary reconciliation efforts as by the primaries themselves. Aggrieved aspirants frequently become powerful spoilers when not adequately accommodated.
The events of the last few days suggest that several parties may have underestimated the scale of the challenge before them.
The ADC, widely seen as one of the major opposition platforms challenging President Tinubu, emerged from its presidential primary with former Vice President Atiku Abubakar as its candidate.
Atiku defeated former Rivers State Governor Rotimi Amaechi and businessman Mohammed Hayatu-Deen in a contest that party officials described as transparent and credible.
However, the outcome immediately generated controversy.
Both Amaechi and Hayatu-Deen rejected the process and stayed away from the collation and declaration of results.
Their objections have since fuelled debates about the legitimacy of the exercise and exposed divisions that party leaders are now scrambling to address.
Within 48 hours of his emergence, Atiku embarked on a reconciliation mission. He visited Amaechi in Abuja and later travelled to Lagos to meet Hayatu-Deen.
The former vice president subsequently described the discussions as frank and productive, signalling his determination to prevent post-primary grievances from escalating into a larger crisis. Yet reconciliation efforts may prove more difficult than anticipated.
Former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Babachir Lawal, has publicly distanced himself from the ADC, alleging that the presidential primary was manipulated in favour of Atiku.
His criticism reflects concerns among some stakeholders that the party’s internal democratic structures remain weak.
Political observers note that the ADC’s challenge is not merely about managing disappointed aspirants but also about convincing voters that it can present a coherent alternative to the APC.
The Chris Uba Question and ADC’s Emerging Identity Crisis
Compounding the ADC’s troubles is the emergence of a rival faction claiming to have produced businessman Prof. Chief Chris Uba as its presidential candidate.
The faction, reportedly led by National Chairman Nafiu Bala Gombe, insists that a consensus arrangement led to Uba’s emergence after other aspirants stepped down in his favour.
The development has introduced fresh uncertainty into an already complicated political environment.
Although the faction’s legitimacy remains contested, its actions underscore the broader crisis confronting many Nigerian political parties: the proliferation of competing leadership structures and rival claims to authority.
Legal experts say such disputes often end up before the courts, sometimes persisting until election season.
Several parties have previously lost electoral opportunities because of unresolved internal conflicts that resulted in judicial interventions.
For the ADC, the immediate concern is whether it can establish a single, recognised leadership structure capable of engaging INEC and presenting candidates without further controversy.
Failure to do so could undermine its electoral prospects before campaigns officially begin.
NDC’s Rapid Rise and Lingering Questions
Perhaps the most surprising development of the primary season has been the emergence of the Nigeria Democratic Congress.
The party has rapidly positioned itself as a potential force within the opposition ecosystem, largely due to the involvement of high-profile political figures.
Former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi emerged as the party’s presidential standard-bearer after his departure from the ADC.
His move was widely interpreted as a response to the growing tensions within his former political platform.
However, even before the celebrations surrounding his emergence had subsided, questions began to arise regarding the official status of the NDC primary.
The party’s National Publicity Secretary issued a statement distancing the organisation from various results circulating on social media.
According to the statement, only the National Executive Council possesses the authority to announce the outcome of the primaries.
The NEC was subsequently scheduled to meet to deliberate on the exercise and ratify results before forwarding names to INEC.
The clarification has generated uncertainty regarding claims that Obi had already secured formal ratification.
Political analysts say the situation highlights the organisational challenges often faced by relatively new political parties attempting to build nationwide structures within compressed timelines.
Nonetheless, the NDC continues to attract attention because of its ability to attract influential political actors from different regions.
The Obi-Kwankwaso Equation
Among the most significant political developments of the season is the growing collaboration between Peter Obi and former Kano State Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso.
Both politicians command substantial support bases that have historically operated independently.
Obi remains particularly influential among younger voters and sections of the urban middle class, while Kwankwaso retains strong grassroots networks across parts of northern Nigeria through the Kwankwasiyya movement.
The prospect of both figures working together has generated considerable interest among opposition supporters seeking a broad coalition capable of challenging the APC.
Supporters argue that such an alliance could improve geographical balance and enhance the opposition’s ability to compete nationally.
However, sceptics caution that electoral alliances often face significant difficulties when transitioning from negotiation tables to campaign structures.
Questions remain about how competing interests, campaign resources and regional expectations would be managed.
The durability of the arrangement may ultimately depend on whether both camps can maintain cohesion under the pressures of a national campaign.
Atiku’s Running Mate Dilemma
Even as reconciliation efforts continue, attention has shifted toward another critical decision facing Atiku Abubakar: the selection of a running mate.
The vice-presidential choice has historically played an important role in Nigerian presidential elections, influencing regional perceptions, voter mobilisation and coalition-building efforts.
Sources within the ADC suggest that consultations are underway across multiple geopolitical zones.
Particular attention is reportedly focused on the South-East and South-South regions.
Among those frequently mentioned is former Imo State Governor Emeka Ihedioha.
Party insiders describe him as a respected political figure with extensive networks and significant influence in the South-East.
Supporters of his potential nomination argue that he could strengthen the party’s appeal in a region where opposition parties are seeking to consolidate support.
Former Cross River State Governor Donald Duke has also been mentioned in political circles.
Known for his technocratic image and relatively moderate political profile, Duke is viewed by some strategists as a figure capable of attracting undecided voters.
Rotimi Amaechi’s name initially surfaced in speculation surrounding the vice-presidential slot.
However, party officials have reportedly dismissed such suggestions.
The reasoning appears straightforward: selecting a candidate who remains dissatisfied with the primary process could create additional complications rather than promote unity.
Ultimately, the decision will likely reflect broader calculations about electoral geography, coalition management and voter perceptions.
PDP’s Continuing Fragmentation
The Peoples Democratic Party, once Nigeria’s dominant political force, continues to struggle with internal divisions that have weakened its national influence.
The party remains split between competing factions, each claiming legitimacy.
One faction produced former Senator Sandy Onor as its presidential candidate.
Another faction, associated with former Minister Kabiru Turaki, has adopted former President Goodluck Jonathan.
The Jonathan development generated considerable attention.
Supporters organised a convention aimed at formally ratifying his candidacy.
However, the exercise was complicated by intervention from security agencies and disputes over venue access.
Eventually, delegates proceeded with the convention at an alternative location, where a certificate of return was issued on Jonathan’s behalf.
Notably, the former president has yet to publicly accept or reject the nomination.
His silence has fuelled speculation regarding his intentions.
Political observers note that the PDP’s challenges extend beyond candidate selection.
The party must also resolve fundamental questions about leadership, organisational authority and strategic direction. Without a unified structure, it may struggle to compete effectively in 2027.
Labour Party’s Parallel Structures Persist
The Labour Party is confronting similar difficulties. Despite efforts to stabilise the party following the 2023 elections, rival leadership factions continue to produce conflicting outcomes.
One faction led by Nenadi Usman reportedly selected Chibuzo Okereke as its presidential candidate.
Another faction associated with former National Chairman Julius Abure announced Kennedy Ahanotu as its flag-bearer.
The competing claims reflect unresolved disputes that have plagued the party for years.
Political analysts argue that unless the Labour Party successfully addresses its internal divisions, its ability to build on previous electoral gains may be significantly constrained.
Oyo State Becomes a Microcosm of National Crisis
The confusion at the national level is mirrored in several states. Oyo State provides perhaps the clearest example. Multiple parties have emerged from their governorship primaries with parallel candidates.
Within the ADC, separate primary exercises produced different winners. The PDP experienced a similar scenario, with rival factions presenting different governorship candidates.
The Accord Party also witnessed competing declarations of victory. Even the APC faced disputes regarding the authenticity of its governorship primary outcome.
These developments highlight broader structural weaknesses within party systems across Nigeria.
Rather than isolated incidents, they reflect recurring patterns of factionalism, leadership disputes and disagreements over internal processes.
Legal battles arising from these contests could extend well into the campaign period.
INEC’s Timetable and the Race Against Time
Against this backdrop, INEC’s timetable has assumed increased importance. The commission has announced that political parties will begin receiving access codes for candidate submissions later this month.
The process represents a critical stage in the electoral calendar. Candidates whose names are not uploaded within stipulated deadlines risk exclusion from the ballot.
INEC has also reiterated that manual submission of nomination forms is no longer permitted.
The commission’s digital approach is intended to improve efficiency and reduce disputes regarding candidate submissions.
However, parties struggling with parallel structures may face additional complications.
Determining which faction possesses authority to submit candidates could become a contentious issue.
The situation is further complicated by ongoing litigation involving aspects of INEC’s guidelines.
Any uncertainty surrounding legal interpretations could create additional challenges for electoral administration.
APC’s Advantageous Position
Amid the turmoil engulfing opposition parties, the APC appears comparatively stable. President Tinubu secured the party’s nomination without major controversy.
Although disputes emerged in some states over legislative and governorship tickets, party leaders have moved quickly to activate reconciliation mechanisms.
The APC’s national leadership has repeatedly emphasised internal dispute resolution and party unity. Whether these efforts succeed remains to be seen. However, the contrast with opposition parties is notable.
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At a time when rivals are consumed by questions of legitimacy, leadership and candidate recognition, the ruling party has largely shifted attention toward campaign preparation.
This organisational advantage could prove significant as the election season progresses.
The Road Ahead
The conclusion of party primaries has provided a clearer picture of Nigeria’s evolving political landscape, but it has also revealed profound uncertainties.
Rather than producing definitive candidates and settled alliances, the exercises have generated new disputes, fresh negotiations and additional questions.
For opposition parties, the challenge extends beyond selecting candidates.
They must build cohesive structures, reconcile aggrieved stakeholders and present credible alternatives to voters.
For the APC, the task is different: maintaining unity while defending its record in government.
The coming weeks will be particularly important. Running mate selections, candidate submissions and court decisions could reshape the political environment.
Meanwhile, voters will be watching closely to determine whether political parties can demonstrate the organisational discipline and stability required to govern a complex nation.
As Nigeria moves closer to the 2027 elections, one reality has become increasingly clear: the primaries may be over, but the real political contest is only just beginning.
