Nigeria’s economy accelerated in the third quarter of 2025, with GDP expanding by 3.98% year-on-year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The figure exceeds analyst expectations of 3.6% to 4.5% and marks a significant improvement from last year’s 3.46% growth, highlighting the resilience of the non-oil sectors amid ongoing structural reforms, including the July 2025 GDP rebasing that better reflects the country’s evolving economic landscape.
Key Highlights:
GDP growth: 3.98% year-on-year, up from 3.46% in Q3 2024
Services sector drives expansion with 4.15% growth
Agriculture posts strong 3.79% growth, industrial sector rises 3.77%
Oil contribution remains modest at 3.44%, non-oil sector dominates at 96.56%
Economy shows resilience amid subsidy removals, inflation moderation, and foreign exchange stabilization
The services sector led the expansion, contributing 53.02% to GDP with a growth rate of 4.15%, driven by telecommunications, financial institutions, trade, and real estate. Agriculture also posted robust performance, rising 3.79% on the back of favorable weather and government incentives, while industry expanded 3.77%, powered by manufacturing and construction. Oil production averaged 1.64 million barrels per day, slightly below Q2’s 1.68 mbpd, keeping its contribution to GDP modest at 3.44%. The non-oil sector accounted for 96.56% of overall GDP, underscoring its central role in sustaining economic growth.
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This Q3 performance builds on a strong first half of 2025, with GDP growth of 3.13% in Q1 and 4.23% in Q2, positioning Nigeria for full-year growth likely exceeding 3.5%, an improvement from 3.38% in 2024. Economists credit President Bola Tinubu’s policies, including monetary adjustments and inflation control measures, for bolstering confidence and supporting non-oil activity. Inflation has eased from 34.8% in late 2024 to 24.48% by January 2025, yet challenges remain, including rising public debt of N152.39 trillion ($99.65 billion), currency volatility, and insecurity in northern regions.
Ayodele Olagunju, chief economist at CardinalStone Securities, described the data as “encouraging but uneven,” noting that while moderation in services growth may reflect tighter monetary policy, agriculture’s surge offers hope for food security and rural employment.
For investors, non-oil sectors, particularly ICT and finance, signal diversification opportunities, while oil production will need to approach the OPEC quota of 1.8 mbpd to sustain fiscal health. The NBS report underscores an economy adapting to shocks, with structural reforms and non-oil drivers powering growth, though translating this into broad-based poverty reduction will require targeted investment in infrastructure and human capital.
