The US is hurtling towards a government shutdown on Tuesday night, and there appears to be little appetite on either side of the partisan divide to avoid it.
A last-ditch meeting between President Donald Trump and Democratic leaders in Congress made little progress. If anything, both sides have been digging deeper into their positions.
“I think we’re headed to a shutdown because the Democrats won’t do the right thing,” Vice President JD Vance told reporters after the meeting at the White House.
“You don’t put a gun to the American people’s head and say, unless you do exactly what Senate and House Democrats want you to do, we’re going to shut down your government.”
Democratic Senate leader Chuck Schumer said there were still “very large differences” between his party and the White House.
No one sounded optimistic.
These positions hardened further on Monday night after Trump posted an AI video mocking the Democratic leadership.
It depicted House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries dressed in a sombrero and a fake moustache, and Schumer saying in an artificial voice that undocumented migrants should get free healthcare.
Both men responded angrily, with Jeffries calling it bigotry.
In terms of the substantive demands from each side, Republicans want a short-term extension of current spending levels, essentially kicking the legislative can a bit farther down the road.
They’re happy with the way things are going, particularly since the Trump administration has been implementing spending cuts on its own, without the help of congressional budget-setters.
Democrats want that practice to end. What’s the point, they wonder, of negotiating spending-level agreements if Trump will just ignore them?
They also want a firm agreement to renew the government health-insurance subsidies for low-income individuals that expire at the end of the year, something Republicans have been reluctant to do so far.
Those are the negotiating positions of both sides, but government shutdown fights are about more than policy; they’re about politics.
Republicans think they have the political high ground.
The party that makes demands in exchange for keeping the government open, in this case the Democrats, typically gets the lion’s share of the blame when a shutdown happens.
Trump and Republican congressional leaders are already claiming that they are the reasonable ones.
They’re the ones, they say, who simply want to buy more time to negotiate without the adverse consequences of a shutdown.
Of course, Democrats don’t see it that way.
They believe healthcare is a winning issue for them, so they want the debate to be on whether millions of Americans will lose the ability to afford medical insurance.
Temporarily funding the government for seven weeks, in their view, just moves that subsidy deadline closer without any appreciable progress.
Complicating all this for Democrats is the reality that many Republicans seem at peace with an extended government closure.
White House budget chief Russ Vought recently circulated a memorandum explaining how the Trump administration would use a shutdown to make new, long-term reductions in federal spending and employment rolls.
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Positions and government programmes deemed “nonessential” during the closure will be permanently shuttered, an expansion of the Department of Government Efficiency (Doge) cuts from earlier this year.
But Democratic leaders seem to believe the threats are a bluff or a negotiating tactic.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer called it “an attempt at intimidation”.
“Donald Trump has been firing federal workers since day one, not to govern, but to scare,” Schumer said. “This is nothing new and has nothing to do with funding the government.”
Schumer and his fellow Democratic congressional leaders are also under intense pressure from their political base to hold fast in the face of Republican attacks.
