As Nigeria inches closer to the pivotal 2027 general elections, a storm is gathering within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, once hailed as a master political strategist, now faces an internal rebellion that threatens not just party unity but also his path to re-election.
At the heart of this crisis is a highly controversial but politically calculated decision: the rumored move to drop Vice President Kashim Shettima and replace him with former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara, a Christian from Bauchi State. The motive? To correct the much-criticized Muslim-Muslim ticket that helped the APC secure victory in 2023 but sparked deep religious resentment across the country.
But as Tinubu tries to engineer a new alliance by introducing religious balance to the 2027 ticket, he may be opening old wounds and triggering a backlash that could tear the APC apart.
The 2023 Muslim-Muslim Ticket: A Dangerous Precedent?
When Tinubu chose Shettima, another Muslim from the North-East as his running mate in 2023, it was a political masterstroke wrapped in controversy. While it secured broad northern support and ultimately delivered electoral victory, the move also alienated significant swathes of Nigeria’s Christian population, particularly in the North-Central and North-East regions.
Religious leaders, civil society groups, and even prominent APC insiders criticized the ticket as exclusionary in a country already grappling with ethno-religious tensions. Despite the backlash, Tinubu and Shettima rode the storm to power. But the cost, many argue, was steep: a deepening of national polarization and the erosion of APC’s support among Christian voters.
Now, with 2027 on the horizon, Tinubu is reportedly attempting a course correction, by substituting Shettima with Dogara, a prominent Christian politician who broke ranks with the APC in 2022 over the same Muslim-Muslim arrangement, only to return in 2023 after Tinubu’s victory.
Inside the APC Meltdown: Gombe Stakeholders’ Meeting Turns Chaotic
Tensions reached a boiling point on Sunday at a North-East APC stakeholders’ meeting in Gombe State, intended to show unity and reaffirm support for Tinubu’s second term. What ensued was chaos.
The trigger? The failure of APC National Vice Chairman (North-East), Mustapha Salihu, to mention Vice President Shettima during his speech endorsing Tinubu. What should have been a routine endorsement spiraled into mayhem. Videos from the event show delegates shouting Shettima’s name, hurling insults, and physically attacking Salihu. One supporter flung a chair; another tossed a water bucket.
Delegates from Borno, Adamawa, Yobe, and Bauchi stormed out, accusing the party of orchestrating a plan to humiliate their “son” and replace him. “This was no accident,” said Usman Aliyu, a Borno delegate. “They are preparing the ground to drop Shettima, and we will resist it.”
Dogara’s Emergence: Balancer or Betrayer?
Former Speaker Yakubu Dogara is no stranger to controversy or strategic maneuvering. A Christian from Bogoro in Bauchi State, Dogara defected from the APC to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in 2020 over issues related to religious marginalization but returned in 2023 after Tinubu’s win.
Dogara has consistently advocated for a balanced Muslim-Christian ticket, warning that the 2023 configuration could alienate Christians and inflame sectarian tensions. In 2022, he famously led a coalition of Northern Christian leaders to oppose the Tinubu-Shettima pairing.
Read also:
- North-East APC caucus meeting ends in chaos over endorsement of Tinubu without Shettima
- Shettima charges RMAFC on fiscal equity to revive economy
- Green Imperative Project to launch in Nigeria’s 6 Geo-Political Zones — Shettima
Now, he is rumored to be the top choice for Vice President in 2027, a move designed to broaden Tinubu’s appeal, especially among Christian voters and fence-sitters in the Middle Belt.
But within the APC, especially the North-East, Dogara is seen by many as an opportunist and worse, as a symbol of betrayal to the ANPP bloc that contributed heavily to the APC’s merger and electoral strength.
The ANPP Bloc: Losing Relevance or Being Purged?
One of the legacy parties that merged to form the APC in 2013, the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), brought with it powerful Northern political actors, among them, Kashim Shettima, Ali Modu Sheriff, and Ibrahim Geidam.
However, over the years, many within the ANPP faction have grown increasingly disillusioned. They argue that while the CPC (Congress for Progressive Change) produced President Muhammadu Buhari, and the ACN (Action Congress of Nigeria) produced Tinubu, the ANPP has been left in the cold.
Now, with Shettima, arguably the most visible ANPP product, at risk of being sidelined, that discontent is turning to open rebellion.
At a recent gathering in Abuja, the Association of Former ANPP Members issued a blistering statement demanding the APC leadership honor the rotational understanding among legacy parties. Their leader, Professor Vitalis Ajumbe, declared: “The CPC took its share. The ACN took its turn. Is it not time for the ANPP? We won’t sit idly by while our people are erased.”
The Religious Optics: Correcting or Compounding the Mistake?
For many, Tinubu’s rumored decision to pick Dogara is an attempt to rectify the religious imbalance of 2023. But critics say it might be too little, too late—or worse, seen as politically expedient rather than principled.
Reverend Yunusa Nmadu, General Secretary of the Evangelical Church Winning All (ECWA), recently said: “If this change is only about votes and not conviction, it’s still a betrayal. What Nigeria needs is consistent, inclusive leadership—not last-minute adjustments to avoid electoral backlash.”
Nmadu warned that if Shettima is removed, it would affirm suspicions that Christians are being used as political tools rather than partners in governance.
He posed a sobering question: “From 2015 to possibly 2039, Nigeria could have Muslim Presidents and Vice Presidents. Is that inclusion? Is that equity?”
Internal Sabotage and the Risk of Defection
Sources within the APC reveal that factions aligned with the CPC are lobbying for a more “northern heavyweight” vice-presidential candidate—though Dogara’s religious identity gives him an edge. Yet, others believe the North-East should not be discarded so easily.
A senior APC chieftain who spoke anonymously said, “You can’t just replace Shettima without consequences. The North-East delivered millions of votes. If you remove him, you weaken the base. It’s a risky gamble.”
Already, murmurs of defection and sabotage are spreading. Political analysts warn that key actors within the ANPP bloc could realign with opposition parties, or worse, form a splinter faction, especially if they feel Shettima’s removal is a foregone conclusion.
2031 and Beyond: A Strategic Tightrope
Beyond 2027 lies another political battleground: 2031. It is widely expected that if Tinubu wins a second term, he will support a northern candidate to succeed him.
For the ANPP bloc, this is the ultimate prize. But their influence in this future equation hinges on Shettima’s continued relevance. If he is axed now, it could eliminate any leverage they have for 2031.
Political analyst James Abass, based in Yola, said: “This isn’t just about 2027. It’s about what happens after. If Shettima goes, so does the ANPP bloc’s claim to power.”
The Tinubu Calculation: Genius or Gamble?
For President Tinubu, this is a high-wire act. On one hand, swapping Shettima for Dogara could boost Christian support, especially in swing regions. On the other, it could fracture the northern coalition that helped him win in 2023.
It is a strategic bet that assumes religious balancing can be achieved without alienating core constituencies. But it’s a bet that could backfire if it leads to mass defections or regional resentment.
Already, some voices in the South-West are uneasy about conceding too much to religious pressure. A Lagos APC elder who preferred anonymity said, “We cannot keep sacrificing loyalty for optics. Shettima has stood by the President. Replacing him sends the wrong message.”
A Party on the Brink
The APC’s strength has always been its ability to unify diverse interests—from the South-West’s progressive base to the North’s conservative strongholds. But unity is cracking under the weight of religious tension, factional rivalry, and legacy party grievances.
The Gombe fracas was not an isolated event. It was a warning sign—a glimpse into deeper unrest that could consume the APC if left unaddressed.
Whether or not President Tinubu decides to retain Shettima, his next move will shape not just his 2027 prospects, but the fate of the party and the nation’s political balance.
In the end, the question may not just be whether Tinubu can win again. It’s whether the APC, as currently configured, can survive its own contradictions.
