Nigeria’s trade relationship with the United States deteriorated sharply in the first nine months of 2025, with exports declining by N940.98 billion while imports more than doubled, pushing the country into a trade deficit of about N3.15 trillion, latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) have shown.
An analysis of the NBS foreign trade figures for Q1–Q3 2024 and Q1–Q3 2025 revealed that Nigeria exported goods worth N3.65 trillion to the United States in the first nine months of 2025, down from N4.59 trillion recorded in the corresponding period of 2024. The drop represents a 20.5 per cent decline year-on-year.
In contrast, imports from the US surged to N6.80 trillion in the same period, compared with N3.01 trillion a year earlier, reflecting an increase of 125.5 per cent or N3.78 trillion. The sharp divergence reversed Nigeria’s trade position with the US from a surplus of N1.57 trillion in the first nine months of 2024 to a deficit of N3.15 trillion in 2025.
The worsening trade balance coincided with the implementation of Washington’s “reciprocal” tariff regime under former US President Donald Trump. An executive order signed in late July raised Nigeria’s tariff rate from 14 per cent to 15 per cent, effective August 7, 2025. Although crude oil has largely been exempted, the higher duty applies to a broad range of non-oil Nigerian exports, creating uncertainty for American importers and weakening demand.
Data show that non-oil exports bore the brunt of the disruption. In 2024, Nigeria’s exports to the US rose steadily quarter-on-quarter, from N1.31 trillion in Q1 to N1.59 trillion in Q2 and N1.69 trillion in Q3, while imports remained relatively modest. This resulted in quarterly trade surpluses that culminated in a cumulative surplus of N1.57 trillion.
That pattern reversed in 2025. Exports opened at N1.54 trillion in Q1 but declined to N1.36 trillion in Q2 and plunged to N743.63 billion in Q3. Imports, however, climbed from N1.42 trillion in Q1 to N2.16 trillion in Q2 and surged further to N3.22 trillion in Q3.
Quarter-on-quarter figures showed exports fell by 11.9 per cent between Q1 and Q2 and collapsed by 45.3 percent between Q2 and Q3, while imports jumped by 51.8 per cent and 49.1 per cent over the same periods. On a year-on-year basis, exports grew by 17.7 per cent in Q1 2025 but fell by 14.3 per cent in Q2 and plunged by 56 per cent in Q3. Imports rose sharply across all quarters.
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The contraction in export earnings saw the United States drop out of Nigeria’s top five export destinations by Q2 and Q3 of 2025, even as it remained one of the country’s largest sources of imports.
Product-level data further highlighted the imbalance. In Q1 2025, exports to the US were dominated by crude petroleum oils valued at N779.38 billion, followed by urea and jet fuel. Imports in the same quarter were led by crude petroleum oils worth N726.84 billion, alongside used vehicles, lubricating oil additives, soya beans and butanes.
By Q2, Nigeria’s export basket narrowed significantly to cocoa beans, urea, natural rubber and leather products, while imports expanded sharply, driven mainly by crude petroleum oils valued at N1.34 trillion. In Q3, exports dwindled further to relatively minor items such as soya bean flour and cocoa powder preparations, while imports surged again, with crude petroleum oils rising to N2.31 trillion.
Reacting earlier, President Bola Tinubu said Nigeria would remain resilient in the face of changing US trade policies, noting that growing non-oil revenues would cushion external shocks. “If non-oil revenue is growing, then we have no fear of whatever Trump is doing on the other side,” he said.
Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Dr Jumoke Oduwole, said Nigeria would not be stampeded into retaliatory measures but would stay focused on reforms and diversification. She noted that non-oil exports grew by 24 per cent year-on-year in Q1 2025 and that Nigeria was strengthening trade ties within Africa and with countries such as Brazil, China, Japan and the UAE.
Experts and stakeholders said the US tariffs, while challenging, could serve as an opportunity for Nigeria to deepen diversification and expand non-oil exports. Economist Dr Aliyu Ilias urged Nigeria to leverage new partnerships and South–South cooperation, while Dr Muda Yusuf of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise downplayed the broader economic impact, noting Nigeria’s limited trade exposure to the US.
Yusuf, however, identified US visa restrictions as a more critical long-term concern for trade and investment relations, citing recent travel limitations imposed on Nigerian business people, students and exchange visitors.
