In a dramatic turn of events, Iran’s military is reportedly grappling with significant internal disarray as unverified claims circulate that elements of the Iranian Army and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have abandoned their positions. These reports, primarily stemming from social media posts on platforms like X, come in the wake of intense Israeli airstrikes targeting Iran’s military and nuclear infrastructure, raising questions about the resilience of Iran’s armed forces and the broader implications for the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict. However, there are no official confirmation yet from government sources.
The current escalation began on June 12, 2025, when Israel launched a series of precise airstrikes, dubbed “Operation Rising Lion,” targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities, missile depots, and high-ranking military officials. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have since claimed significant successes, including the elimination of key figures such as Major General Mohammad Bagheri, Iran’s Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, and Major General Ali Shamdani, who was appointed as wartime chief of staff only days before his death. These strikes, aimed at crippling Iran’s nuclear ambitions and military capabilities, have reportedly killed dozens of high-ranking officials and caused significant damage to strategic sites, including uranium enrichment facilities in Natanz and missile storage bases.
Iran has responded with retaliatory missile and drone attacks, launching over 370 missiles targeting Israeli cities like Tel Aviv and Haifa. Despite these counterattacks, Iran’s military appears to be struggling to maintain cohesion, with unverified reports suggesting that some units have deserted their posts amid the relentless Israeli offensive.
Several posts on X have claimed that Iran’s military is in disarray, with soldiers and commanders allegedly fleeing their posts. One user, @HesseyJack, suggested on June 15 that “Iran’s army is just abandoning everything,” hinting at a potential collapse in military morale.
Another post by @legitbrittFLA
on June 16 claimed that “Iran’s military have gone completely AWOL,” based on unconfirmed reports from individuals on the ground. A particularly striking claim came from
@mog_russEN on June 16, alleging that the Iranian Army was “evacuating its permanent military bases and deploying along the roads.”
No official statements from Iran’s government or military have confirmed these claims. Iranian state media, such as Fars and IRINN, have focused instead on reporting the deaths of military leaders and civilian casualties, over 224, according to some reports, while emphasizing Iran’s intent to retaliate.
Several factors could contribute to the disarray within Iran’s military, though these remain speculative without official confirmation:
Loss of Leadership: The rapid elimination of top commanders, including Bagheri and Shamdani, may have disrupted the chain of command. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been forced to appoint new leaders, such as General Abdolrahim Mousavi as Chief of Staff and Mohammad Pakpour as head of the IRGC, in quick succession. The loss of experienced leaders could undermine operational coordination and morale.
Israeli Strikes on Infrastructure: Israel’s targeted attacks on command centers, missile depots, and nuclear facilities have likely strained Iran’s military capacity. For instance, the IDF struck the Quds Force headquarters in Tehran and damaged Natanz’s main power supply, potentially hampering Iran’s ability to mount an effective defense.
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The unprecedented scale of Israeli strikes on Iranian soil, including civilian targets like a hospital and state TV headquarters, may have shaken public and military confidence. A high-ranking Iranian diplomat, speaking anonymously to IranWire, warned that the ongoing conflict could weaken the military, economy, and public morale, potentially leading to a loss of control.
Iran’s military, particularly the IRGC, has historically prioritized internal security and loyalty to the regime. However, the intensity of the current conflict and the reported execution of alleged spies for Israel’s Mossad suggest internal vulnerabilities. If soldiers perceive the situation as untenable, desertions could occur, though evidence remains anecdotal.
If the reports of abandoned positions are true, they could signal a significant weakening of Iran’s military posture, potentially emboldening Israel to escalate its campaign. Israeli officials have hinted at broader objectives, with some suggesting that regime change in Iran could be a possible outcome, though Prime Minister Netanyahu has denied this as an explicit goal. The IDF’s claim of having “aerial superiority over Tehran” and the reported destruction of a third of Iran’s missile launchers indicate a strategic advantage for Israel.
However, Iran’s leadership remains defiant, with the IRGC vowing further retaliation and Supreme Leader Khamenei calling for a unified response. Iran’s proxies, such as Hezbollah and militias in Iraq, could also escalate attacks on Israel or U.S. interests, though their capacity may be diminished by Israel’s prior strikes on these groups.
The international community, particularly the United States, is closely monitoring the situation. President Donald Trump has expressed a desire for a “real end” to Iran’s nuclear ambitions but has resisted direct U.S. military involvement, despite Israeli requests for support with bunker-busting bombs. Efforts to broker a ceasefire, supported by France and proposed by the U.S., have so far yielded no results.
