The 2027 presidential election may likely turn out to be a walk in the park for incumbent President Bola Tinubu and his All Progressives Congress (APC) going by the spate of endorsement by major political actors and groups in the six geo-political zones of the country. The endorsement galore if one is to describe the scenario that’s currently playing out across the nation, further places a bigger burden on opposition political parties scheming to wrestle power from the APC and stop Tinubu from winning a second term in office.
For one, the permutations favour the incumbent president securing victory in 2027, going by the unwritten code of power rotation between the South and the North. As a president of southern origin, and bouyed by the power of incumbency, Tinubu’s path to retaining his post is getting wider and smoother as each day goes by
From APC state governors, National Assembly members and state legislators, including those belonging to opposition parties, everyone seems to be falling over each other to catch the president’s eye, and be recognised as working assiduously for his re-election. The bottom line, however, is that they equally want to be re-elected like Tinubu and the surest way is by hanging on to the apron of the president.
Tinubu’s endorsement galore isn’t strange. It happened during the Obasanjo presidency in 2003. Desirous of securing a second term, Obasanjo appealed to political actors in the South West, where his party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) was weak, as the region was controlled by the defunct Alliance for Democracy (AD). With the pact between the PDP and the AD, the outcome of the presidential election was predictable. Obasanjo ultimately, secured his second term, while the PDP made a major inroad into the South West, winning all the governorship seats, except for Lagos State where Tinubu retained his position as governor.
No wonder therefore that opposition political leaders, aware of this historical antecedent are scrambling to form alliances to stop the Tinubu re-election train in its tracks. Unfortunately for them, the train has already left the station and has gathered so much momentum that stopping the train will be a Herculean task. As things stand, and with all things being equal, it will take an act of God, for Tinubu to lose the 2027 presidential election.
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In the South, the APC for now, has in its control nearly all the states, except for Oyo, Osun, Bayelsa, Rivers, Abia, Anambra and Enugu States. The situation in Bayelsa and Rivers remains uncertain whether Governors Douye Diri and Siminalayi Fubara will still remain in the PDP or join the bandwagon of decamping to the APC. In Anambra, Governor Charles Soludo of the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) has already endorsed Tinubu’s re-election.
In reality, baring any surprises, Tinubu is expected to sweep the votes in the South. The picture may not be different in the North. Speculations are rife that some opposition governors in the North are likely to toe the path of their southern counterparts by swinging to the APC before the end of 2025. Therefore, the 2027 presidential election may be a one -way traffic for the APC as the various opposition political parties, including the PDP, the Labour Party (LP) are floundering and wracked by internal in- fighting by various interest groups.
Rather than crying wolf over the gale of defection hitting their parties and the endorsement of Tinubu, the opposition leaders ought to have acted proactively immediately after the 2023 general elections by putting their political camps in order, strengthen their ranks, and present actionable alternative ideas to the people. Instead, they went to sleep and allowed the crisis in their camps to fester and become cancerous.
Their option of forming a new opposition political platform to challenge the APC and Tinubu, for whatever it is, may sound feasible to the likes of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, ex-Governors Peter Obi, Nasir el-Rufai and others in the short term, but in the long haul, maybe a little too late and unlikely, to pose any serious headache for Tinubu and the APC.
For starters, political actors in Nigeria are wont to throw their hats into the camp of the party they presume to be the winning party. During the PDP era, the slogan then was that the “umbrella was big enough to accommodate everyone.” Now, it looks like the broom is strong enough to carry everyone on its mystical flight to the fairy land.
The opposition political can huff and puff all the want over fears that the country is embarking on the journey to becoming a one -party state. But they forget that success begets many offsprings. The APC is the new bride on the block and the would be grooms are many, choosing to covet her beauty.
One common denominator in the endorsement of Tinubu by those who have done so, is his leadership of the country. In their assessment, President Tinubu had demonstrated rare courage and boldness in making decisions that his predecessors shied away from making. The president and the APC can justly, be said to be reaping the fruits of his economic and socio- political programmes.
Tinubu captured the prevailing political mood in the nation at the APC national summit held at the Banquet Hall of the Presidential Villa in Abuja. “I just need to tell those who say a one-party system is no good: you don’t blame a people bailing out of a sinking ship when they have no life jackets. I’m glad for what we have, and I’m expecting more to come. That is the game. Welcome to progress; sweep them clean,” he enthused.
There is the saying that advices that “make hay while it shines.” The sun is definitely shining brighter in Tinubu’s camp, while it’s dimming in the camp of the opposition. Unless, something magical happens, we will see a repeat of the 2023 presidential election. And the incumbent may even surpass the outcome of that election, by recording a landslide electoral victory in 2027.
