As Nigeria inches toward the 2027 general elections, the opposition coalition led by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar is fast unraveling under the weight of personal ambition, ideological differences, and power tussles. Once touted as the most potent challenge to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s re-election bid, the proposed grand alliance now teeters on the brink of collapse.
The most glaring sign of dysfunction is the inability of the coalition’s key players, Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and Rotimi Amaechi to agree on a unified platform. Disagreements over which political party to adopt, whether the African Democratic Congress (ADC) or a newly floated All Democratic Alliance (ADA) have stalled progress.
Sources reveal that Atiku, along with allies like Rauf Aregbesola and Aminu Tambuwal, is pushing for the adoption of the ADC. In contrast, Amaechi and the League of Northern Democrats (LND) prefer forming an entirely new political vehicle; ADA. Meanwhile, Peter Obi remains officially with the Labour Party but continues to participate in coalition talks, keeping his next political move deliberately ambiguous.
The division deepens as each principal actor nurses presidential ambitions. Atiku’s efforts to draft Obi as his running mate reportedly failed, partly due to the prevailing sentiment that the South should retain the presidency to maintain the North-South power rotation. While Obi remains the most popular opposition figure among young Nigerians and urban voters, his reluctance to fully commit to the coalition has drawn sharp criticism from even his former allies.
Adding fuel to the fire, Segun Sowunmi, a key ally of Atiku and a Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) stalwart, lambasted Peter Obi during a recent Arise TV appearance. Sowunmi labeled Obi his “greatest disappointment” and accused him of political naivety for not aligning decisively with the PDP-led coalition.
“I told him many months before that if your mind is not made up by May 29… I’m going to be more inclined to support Asiwaju,” Sowunmi declared, expressing frustration that Obi’s indecision could jeopardize the opposition’s chance to wrest power from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
His comments highlight the internal friction within the coalition and reinforce fears that the opposition may squander the opportunity to build a unified front against President Tinubu in 2027.
PDP Governors Push Back as Party Loyalty Tested
Within the PDP itself, resistance to Atiku’s coalition bid is mounting. Several PDP governors have rejected the idea of a multi-party coalition, insisting that any effort to consolidate opposition forces must be party-driven. Their stance directly contradicts Atiku’s apparent openness to either leaving the PDP or forming a new party altogether.
Observers believe this disunity could further weaken the PDP’s already diminished national presence and open the door for more defections to the ruling APC.
In an unexpected twist, former Minister of Transportation and APC chieftain Rotimi Amaechi voiced strong criticism of President Tinubu’s administration in a BBC interview. Citing worsening poverty, food insecurity, and stagnation in governance, Amaechi declared his openness to forming a new coalition—even if it meant challenging his own party.
“I myself am feeling the effects of hunger,” Amaechi confessed, insisting that Nigerians deserve better leadership. While he stopped short of announcing a presidential run, he said it remained a possibility, emphasizing that he still had “something to offer.”
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Though he remains officially in the APC, Amaechi’s statements have sparked widespread speculation that he could soon defect and solidify his place in the opposition movement.
Despite the internal challenges, the Atiku-led coalition has tried to project unity by announcing six prominent political leaders from each of Nigeria’s geopolitical zones: North-East: Atiku Abubakar, North-Central: David Mark, North-West: Nasir El-Rufai, South-South: Rotimi Amaechi, South-East: Peter Obi and South-West: Rauf Aregbesola
The move was intended to signal national reach and diversity but has so far failed to quell internal tensions or produce a viable political platform.
Tinubu Camp Dismisses Coalition Threat
Unsurprisingly, the ruling party is watching these developments with a mixture of amusement and confidence. Dr. Umar Tanko Yakasai, Director-General of the Tinubu Support Group, recently dismissed the coalition efforts, saying they “will not see the light of day.”
According to Yakasai, Nigerians do not trust the opposition figures due to their past records. “These are people who had opportunities to govern and failed. Now they want another chance after Nigerians have driven them out,” he said.
Yakasai praised Tinubu’s early reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies and the unification of foreign exchange markets, urging Nigerians to be patient and allow the administration’s policies time to yield results.
With the coalition gridlocked over party choices and individual ambitions, the urgency to form a formidable opposition is being lost. Analysts say unless the key actors shelve their personal aspirations for the greater goal of unseating the APC, the opposition risks entering the 2027 race fragmented and weakened.
Peter Obi’s ambivalence, Atiku’s insistence on leading, and Amaechi’s ideological recalibration have created an unstable foundation. Without a unified front, Tinubu’s path to a second term may be smoother than many anticipated—especially amid growing defections to the APC and the opposition’s struggle to inspire a coherent vision for Nigeria’s future.
As the political clock ticks toward 2027, the central question remains: can Nigeria’s opposition bury its egos and unite—or will the coalition crumble before it even takes off?
