Artificial Intelligence (AI) has the power to transform global trade, potentially increasing the value of cross-border flows of goods and services by nearly 40 percent by 2040, according to the World Trade Report 2025 released by the World Trade Organization (WTO). The report highlights that while AI can slash trade costs and boost productivity, its benefits will only be widely shared if governments bridge the digital divide, invest in skills, and maintain open trade policies.
The flagship report projects that with the right enabling environment, global trade could rise by 34 to 37 percent across different scenarios, while world GDP could expand by 12 to 13 percent by 2040. Much of this growth will depend on how quickly low- and middle-income countries can catch up with advanced economies in digital infrastructure and AI adoption. If these economies close half of the digital gap, their incomes could rise by 15 and 14 percent respectively.
In her foreword, WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala emphasized the urgency of inclusive policies. “AI has vast potential to lower trade costs and boost productivity. However, access to AI technologies and the capacity to participate in digital trade remains highly uneven. With the right frameworks, trade can play a central role in making AI work for all,” she said.
The report warns that access to AI-enabling goods such as semiconductors and raw materials remains uneven, with tariffs as high as 45 percent in some low-income countries. Quantitative restrictions on AI-related goods have surged from 130 in 2012 to nearly 500 in 2024, largely driven by advanced economies. Such barriers, the WTO notes, could further widen the gap between rich and poor nations.
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The WTO estimates that trade in AI-enabling goods reached USD 2.3 trillion in 2023, underscoring the sector’s growing significance. By helping economies access these goods, trade could serve as a powerful enabler of inclusive AI-driven growth. The report also underscores the importance of education, training, and labour market policies to prevent inequality from deepening within countries as AI reshapes industries.
Launched at the WTO’s Public Forum on September 17, the report comes amid what Okonjo-Iweala described as “the worst disruptions the global trading system has experienced in 80 years.” She warned that just as underinvestment in education and social safety nets fueled backlash against globalization in past decades, the world must not repeat those mistakes with AI.
Deputy Director-General Johanna Hill and Marc Bacchetta, chief of the WTO’s quantitative economic research unit, presented the report’s key findings. A panel of experts later discussed how AI could redefine the global economy if supported by the right trade and policy frameworks.
The report concludes that deeper cooperation, updated commitments under the General Agreement on Trade in Services, and broader participation in agreements such as the WTO’s Information Technology Agreement will be vital to making AI more inclusive and affordable for all.
