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ADA emerges Nigeria’s third force ahead of 2027: can coalition disrupt APC-PDP duopoly?

Nicholas Ojo by Nicholas Ojo
June 23, 2025
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All Democratic Alliance, Independent National Electoral Commission, ADA, Peter Obi, Atiku, Aminu Tambuwal, John Odigie-Oyegun, New Nigeria Peoples Party, Amaechi, El-Rufai, Dr. Umar Ardo
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As Nigeria barrels toward the 2027 general elections, a seismic shift appears underway in its political landscape. A burgeoning coalition of political heavyweights has coalesced under the banner of the All Democratic Alliance (ADA), a new political entity that seeks not only to challenge the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), but to redefine Nigeria’s democratic future.

With a formal application submitted to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) on June 19, 2025, the ADA is now seeking full registration as a political party. If approved, this move could mark the rise of a credible “third force” in Nigeria’s fractious political space; one driven by public discontent, elite recalibration, and strategic electoral ambition.

What makes the ADA a political project worth watching is the sheer weight and diversity of its founding members. Key figures linked to the coalition include: Atiku Abubakar, former Vice President and perennial presidential contender; Nasir El-Rufai, former governor of Kaduna State; Rotimi Amaechi, former Rivers governor and Transport Minister; David Mark, former Senate President and ADA’s interim chairman.

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This constellation of political heavyweights spans the ideological spectrum, ex-PDP stalwarts, APC defectors, technocrats, and rising civil society actors; all unified by a shared belief: that Nigeria’s two-party dominance has failed to deliver meaningful change.

A document dated May 20, 2025, outlining ADA’s mission, declares the party to be “a national renaissance movement rooted in democratic idealism.” Its slogan, “Justice for All,” and a symbolic party logo incorporating maize, representing sustenance and growth indicates a deep desire to rebrand politics as service, not self-enrichment.

Kenneth Okonkwo: “No Zoning, Meritocracy First”

One of ADA’s vocal champions is Kenneth Okonkwo, actor, lawyer, and former Labour Party spokesperson. Speaking on Channels Television on Sunday, Okonkwo emphasized that the ADA presidential ticket would not be zoned but thrown open to all Nigerians.

“Nobody is going to stop anybody from contesting,” he stated. “We need the best. If the best comes from the South, so be it. If it’s the North, so be it.”

Okonkwo argued that zoning and regional entitlements have historically deepened political divisions and undermined performance. He cited President Tinubu’s underwhelming tenure as proof that regional allegiance must not trump competence.

His comments reflect a shift in Nigeria’s political conversation, from ethno-regional considerations to performance and credibility. And in this, ADA positions itself as a meritocratic alternative.

The ADA vs ADC Dilemma: To Merge or To Build?

However, ADA’s emergence has not been without internal controversy. A major rift recently surfaced among coalition leaders over whether to create a new party or merge into an existing one, particularly the African Democratic Congress (ADC).

Read also:

  • Anti-Tinubu Coalition pushes forward as ADA leaders begin nationwide mobilisation
  • Coalition group finally submitted new political party ‘All Democratic Alliance’ (ADA) to INEC for registration
  • Coalition Collapse? Infighting, ambitions threaten opposition’s 2027 hopes

While figures like Atiku, Aminu Tambuwal, and John Odigie-Oyegun favoured integration with the ADC, citing its national spread and existing INEC registration, others, notably Amaechi, El-Rufai, and Dr. Umar Ardo (convener of the League of Northern Democrats), argued that starting afresh with ADA would offer ideological coherence and escape structural baggage.

The ADC, established in 2005, already claims national presence and has recently formed strategic pacts with civil society groups like COPDEM. Still, ADA proponents believe it’s too mired in internal politics and legal disputes to be a credible vessel for reform.

Notably, former SGF Babachir Lawal, a key coalition member, has dissented from ADA’s trajectory. In his view, the timeline is too tight for registering and stabilizing a new party before 2027. Lawal insists the coalition will merge into an existing party, calling ADA “a splinter initiative hijacking names without authorisation.”

This points to a crucial identity crisis: Which entity truly represents the opposition coalition? And can these competing factions unite in time?

Strategic Mobilisation: ADA Hits the Ground Running

Despite the dispute, ADA has hit the ground running. The coalition has begun mass mobilisation across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones, targeting youth, civil society, professionals, and disillusioned voters.

Sources confirm the coalition is banking on widespread discontent with APC’s economic and governance failures to fuel its rise. Nigerians continue to groan under record inflation, rising poverty, insecurity, and controversial policy decisions. The sense of betrayal runs deep, especially among youth who formed the backbone of the #EndSARS movement and backed Peter Obi’s 2023 campaign.

This mobilisation effort is focused not just on the streets, but within the political class. With PDP governors distancing themselves from any formal merger, ADA is quietly courting disgruntled members from the APC, PDP, and Labour Party. The plan, according to insiders, is to capitalize on internal party nomination crises in the months ahead.

“We are waiting to profit from the nomination crisis that will engulf the APC and PDP in some states,” a coalition source said.

The Peter Obi Factor: Will He Lead the Charge?

Among all the big names associated with ADA, none commands the emotional appeal and youth loyalty of Peter Obi. For many Nigerians online and offline, Obi’s presence will make or break the coalition.

Social media reactions have been emphatic: “Any coalition without Peter Obi as presidential candidate is dead on arrival,” tweeted by a Nigerian.

“The new platform is not the issue. The Peter Obi factor is,” echoed another user on Facebook.

This sentiment underscores a crucial challenge: Who will lead the ADA ticket? With multiple former presidential aspirants in the mix—Atiku, possibly El-Rufai—navigating egos and ambitions will be pivotal. ADA’s success may depend on whether these leaders can subsume personal ambition for a broader goal.

Can ADA Succeed Where Others Failed?

Nigeria’s political history is littered with failed third-party attempts. From the 2011 Mega Party project to the more recent New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), most fizzled due to lack of grassroots structures, funding, or elite cohesion.

ADA faces similar hurdles: Logistical and operational preparedness: Can it establish ward-level units nationwide?

Funding and internal democracy: Who bankrolls the party? Will primary elections be credible? Voter trust: Can ADA distinguish itself from “old wine in a new bottle” narratives?

But unlike past efforts, ADA arrives at a moment of historic public discontent. The APC’s post-2023 honeymoon has long soured. The PDP remains fragmented. The Labour Party’s momentum has stagnated due to internal rifts.

This creates a unique opening for ADA—if it can harness symbolic idealism with practical execution.

High Stakes, Limited Time

As ADA awaits INEC’s verdict on its registration application, the Nigerian electorate watches with cautious optimism. The stakes are not just about 2027, but about the future of Nigerian democracy.

Will ADA deliver a paradigm shift, or will it collapse under the weight of its contradictions? Can it unite the masses and the elite, idealism and strategy, before campaign season heats up?

INEC’s response, expected in the coming weeks, will mark a critical milestone. But the real test lies in ADA’s ability to present a coherent, compelling, and credible alternative—not just on paper, but at the ballot box.

For now, Nigerians are watching. And waiting.

 

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