Fuel prices in Nigeria, which skyrocketed to around ₦930 per litre after subsidy removal, may soon experience a major drop. The National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies (NIPSS) has assured Nigerians that relief is on the way, with petrol prices potentially falling to as low as ₦750 per litre before the end of the year.
The subsidy removal, announced by President Bola Tinubu, led to an unprecedented hike in fuel costs, triggering widespread concern among citizens. Before the removal, petrol sold for less than ₦200 per litre, making the current prices a burden for many. However, according to NIPSS Director-General Ayo Omotayo, the situation is set to improve significantly.
Speaking on Channels Television’s The Morning Brief, Omotayo attributed the expected price drop to the ramping up of operations at Dangote Refinery and other local refineries. “With the removal of the fuel subsidy, we now have the Dangote Refinery coming on board, and other refineries are also picking up,” he explained. “The refinery in Port Harcourt, for instance, has been running consistently for over 110 days. These are the short-term gains.”
Omotayo is confident that if the country maintains its current trajectory, fuel prices will stabilize at a more affordable rate. “We anticipate that before the end of the year, fuel prices will decline to about ₦750 per litre. Additionally, we expect the foreign exchange rate to drop to around 1.3. As more refineries come online, Nigeria will eventually become a net exporter of refined petroleum products,” he added.
President Tinubu’s subsidy removal marked a historic shift in Nigeria’s energy policy. For decades, the Federal Government maintained a subsidy regime, swapping crude oil for refined petrol at subsidized rates. While this kept prices artificially low for consumers, it drained national revenue, strained foreign exchange reserves, and contributed to the country’s rising debt. Tinubu, fulfilling a key campaign promise, declared during his inauguration that “fuel subsidy is gone,” setting the stage for Nigeria’s transition to a free-market fuel economy.
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The abrupt policy shift led to a sharp rise in fuel prices, triggering inflationary pressures across multiple sectors. Many Nigerians struggled to adjust, with businesses and households grappling with higher transportation and operational costs. However, Omotayo insists that the decision was necessary to prevent economic collapse.
“For us at NIPSS, the subsidy removal was timely and crucial,” he stated. “Nigeria was on the verge of collapse under the weight of unsustainable subsidy payments. The truth is, we weren’t just subsidizing fuel for Nigerians; we were indirectly subsidizing fuel for neighboring countries like Burkina Faso and Sierra Leone. A responsible government must take tough decisions to secure the nation’s future.”
While public sentiment remains mixed, experts believe that as local refineries scale up production and foreign exchange rates stabilize, fuel prices will gradually decline. The expectation is that Nigerians will soon reap the long-term benefits of subsidy removal, including economic growth and energy sector stability.
With fuel prices projected to drop and Nigeria moving closer to self-sufficiency in petroleum refining, all eyes remain on how swiftly these anticipated changes will materialize. Will petrol truly sell for ₦750 per litre before year-end? Only time will tell, but for now, the promise of relief is a glimmer of hope for millions of Nigerians.
