Nigeria’s trade sector delivered a powerful lift to the economy in the first half of 2025, contributing N40.1 trillion naira to the nation’s Gross Domestic Product. Fresh figures from the National Bureau of Statistics show that trade added N14.9 trillion naira to GDP in the first quarter and climbed sharply to N26.12 trillion naira in the second, marking a quarter-on-quarter rise of nearly 70% and a year-on-year jump of 29%.
The broad surge in non-oil exports, stronger gas sales and renewed refinery activity helped drive the rebound. Nigeria recorded exports worth N43 35 trillion naira and imports of N30.7 trillion naira in the first six months of the year, leaving a surplus of 12.64 trillion naira.
The President of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Gabriel Idahosa, said the data reflects the sharp rise in export activity and higher petroleum output, noting that non-oil exports have grown from N1.43 trillion in 2020 to N6.1 trillion naira in the first half of 2025. He explained that the increased supply of LNG, CNG and LPG, along with higher volumes of refined products and crude, has strengthened trade across the value chain.
Idahosa added that the momentum is expected, though manufacturing has not yet matched the pace. Weak household demand, high energy costs and piles of unsold goods continue to slow factory output. He said manufacturing will recover more slowly as inflation eases and purchasing power improves.
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Trade’s real GDP growth eased from 1.77% in the first quarter to 1.39% in the second. Former CIBN president, Professor Segun Ajibola, said the decline reflects normal seasonal patterns, noting that business activity typically strengthens in the second quarter as firms pick up speed after a slow start to the year. He warned that long-term performance will depend on whether growth is driven more by exports than imports.
Manufacturing remains a weak link. Although the sector posted a year-on-year real growth of 1.6%, its contribution to GDP fell to 7.81% in the second quarter, down from 8.01% a year earlier and 9.62% in the first quarter of 2025.
The President of the Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria, Dr Femi Egbesola, said trade is expanding because manufacturing is shrinking. He argued that rising imports are filling the gap left by struggling local producers, warning that this trend threatens jobs and deepens poverty. He noted that increased local refining, especially the supply of products from the Dangote Refinery, has shifted spending away from imported fuel, which is reflected in the trade numbers.
Stakeholders urged government to strengthen industrial policy and support light manufacturing so that rising trade volumes translate into real economic development.
