The apparent political feud between President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and former Kaduna State Governor Nasir el-Rufai has become one of Nigeria’s most discussed political dramas in 2024 and 2025. The story, told through media leaks, indirect statements, and subtle political maneuvers has been framed as a clash of ego between two powerful politicians.
Yet, beyond the surface lies a more layered reality. Political insiders suggest the friction may not be the open rebellion it appears to be. Instead, it may represent a calculated repositioning one that intersects with the fractured state of Nigeria’s opposition, particularly the indecisive political strategy of Peter Obi, whose uncertain direction since the 2023 election has inadvertently created room for El-Rufai’s resurgence.
This piece examines the Tinubu–El-Rufai dynamic, its regional and political implications, and how Obi’s hesitation has quietly reshaped the opposition landscape ahead of 2027.
The Alliance That Once Was
Before their supposed fallout, Bola Tinubu and Nasir el-Rufai were political partners of convenience, drawn together by ambition and mutual benefit. Their alliance dates back to the formation of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2013, when Tinubu’s Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) merged with el-Rufai’s Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) wing of the Buhari camp and other smaller parties to unseat the then-ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
At the time, Tinubu was the master strategist of the Southwest, while el-Rufai was a rising northern technocrat with a reputation for efficiency and bluntness, shaped during his tenure as the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) under President Olusegun Obasanjo.
Their collaboration became even more visible in the run-up to the 2023 elections. When many northern APC leaders hesitated to back Tinubu’s presidential bid, el-Rufai stood among his most vocal defenders. At Tinubu’s Chatham House event in London, el-Rufai fielded questions on security, projecting confidence in a Tinubu presidency. “We will continue to work together,” he said then, dismissing speculation of internal rifts.
But within two years of Tinubu’s inauguration, that alliance appeared to have crumbled, at least on the surface.
The Rejection That Redefined the Relationship
The first major sign of trouble came in 2023 when el-Rufai’s ministerial nomination was rejected by the Senate over “security clearance issues.” The former governor, who had expected to head either the power or infrastructure portfolio, withdrew in anger and quietly left Abuja for Dubai.
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Soon afterward, his tone toward the administration changed. He began criticizing the federal government’s economic and energy policies, particularly the handling of fuel subsidy removal and electricity tariff reforms; accusing Tinubu’s team of failing to cushion citizens from hardship and warning of a looming revolt.
“El-Rufai does not forgive political humiliation,” said a northern APC chieftain who requested anonymity. “The Senate rejection was his breaking point. But don’t mistake his anger for ideology, it’s also strategy.”
That “strategy” became clearer when el-Rufai began flirting with the Social Democratic Party (SDP), a smaller platform viewed as a possible northern fallback option. His associates in Kaduna and Kano began hosting “SDP discussion circles,” hinting at a broader ambition.
When the SDP’s national leadership announced his expulsion for alleged anti-party activities, the Kaduna chapter countered, describing him as a “respected leader.” The conflicting signals underscored a deeper calculation: el-Rufai was testing a political vehicle rather than simply joining one.
From Feud to Strategic Posturing
While the media continues to frame the Tinubu–El-Rufai standoff as an ideological clash, many analysts believe it’s less a feud and more a performance — a “strategic distancing” that benefits both men.
Tinubu, battling public discontent over economic hardship, gains from having a controlled northern critic, someone loud enough to vent frustrations but not strong enough to mobilize rebellion. El-Rufai, in turn, retains relevance as the aggrieved truth-teller without burning bridges completely.
A senior APC strategist in Abuja framed it this way: “El-Rufai is playing a dual role; internal dissenter and external validator. He criticizes Tinubu publicly but remains within the same elite network that profits from the system.”
For Tinubu, the optics of having El-Rufai on the attack may even be deliberate, a way to project pluralism within the ruling class while diffusing grassroots anger in the North.
The Northern Equation and 2027 Realignments
To grasp El-Rufai’s maneuvering, one must view it through the prism of northern politics ahead of 2027. The North remained fragmented after the 2023 elections, where Tinubu’s victory rested more on elite negotiations than on genuine mass enthusiasm.
Many northern politicians, especially those loyal to the defunct CPC bloc have grown uneasy with what they perceive as the over-centralization of power within Tinubu’s Southwest network. Governors from Katsina, Niger, Zamfara, and parts of the Northwest have quietly complained of “policy neglect” and the dominance of Lagos-based technocrats in key federal appointments.
El-Rufai’s rhetoric resonates with these grievances. By positioning himself as the voice of a “betrayed North,” he seeks not necessarily to run for office, but to reassert the region’s bargaining power in the next political cycle.
“El-Rufai isn’t building a movement,” said a political science lecturer at Ahmadu Bello University. “He’s building leverage. If Tinubu’s popularity continues to drop, El-Rufai wants to be first to organize northern discontent into a political currency.”
It’s a familiar script: between 2010 and 2013, he played a similar role in the anti-Jonathan opposition that birthed the APC.
Peter Obi’s Hesitation and the Fragmented Opposition
While El-Rufai recalibrates, the opposition remains adrift, a reality that has largely benefited Tinubu.
Peter Obi, the Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate, was expected to consolidate his momentum into a structured opposition movement. His “Obidient” base, youthful and urban, symbolized Nigeria’s most spontaneous political awakening in decades.
But since the Supreme Court upheld Tinubu’s election in late 2023, Obi’s momentum has slowed. Rather than building alliances with Atiku Abubakar’s PDP faction, Rabiu Kwankwaso’s NNPP, or emerging forces like the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Obi has opted for cautious isolation, citing “value-based politics.”
That hesitation has created space for El-Rufai to step into the vacuum of anti-establishment rhetoric. As one analyst noted:
“While Obi tweets about governance ideals, El-Rufai is touring the North, meeting power brokers and funding grassroots networks. Obi is waiting for structure to form — El-Rufai is creating one.”
The Labour Party’s internal crises, from leadership disputes to funding quarrels have further eroded cohesion, making the opposition less capable of countering APC’s narrative dominance.
El-Rufai’s SDP Gamble and the Shadow of 2027
The confusion over El-Rufai’s supposed SDP membership reflects the broader uncertainty across Nigeria’s opposition. Insiders say his flirtation with the party is less about contesting and more about influence-testing.
“He’s testing structures,” said one aide. “He knows the APC might implode before 2027 and wants a fallback platform.”
Within the SDP, some see him as a revivalist figure, others as an infiltrator. Either way, his name keeps the party and himself in the national conversation.
Tinubu’s Silent Strategy
President Tinubu has responded with characteristic restraint, preferring quiet containment to public confrontation. His approach reflects his long-held principle: not every battle deserves a response.
Rather than attacking El-Rufai, the presidency has sidelined his allies, empowered rival northern leaders, and channeled projects and patronage toward Kaduna and Zaria to neutralize his influence among clerics and youth.
“Tinubu is playing the long game,” said a presidential aide. “By 2026, most loud critics will either reconcile or fade.”
This mirrors Tinubu’s broader strategy, fragment the opposition, delay their unity, and co-opt key figures through strategic patronage.
Media War and the Politics of Optics
The Tinubu–El-Rufai feud has been conducted largely through leaks, veiled remarks, and carefully timed interviews. El-Rufai stays visible without being overexposed; Tinubu’s team, meanwhile, keeps official silence while loyal surrogates brand El-Rufai as “bitter” or “disgruntled.”
The result is a choreographed spectacle, noisy enough to appear real but stable enough to avoid escalation. It tests public sentiment while keeping both men within the bounds of elite control.
Obi, El-Rufai, and the Battle for Moral High Ground
Peter Obi and Nasir el-Rufai represent two contrasting models of opposition.
Obi embodies moral opposition, idealistic, technocratic, and reformist, powered by civic goodwill. El-Rufai embodies strategic opposition — pragmatic, transactional, and elite-driven.
For Tinubu, this divide is convenient. As long as Obi and El-Rufai occupy different lanes: moral versus strategic — a unified opposition remains impossible. The result is a fragmented resistance and a quietly consolidating presidency.
2027 and Beyond: The Real Meaning of the Feud
As 2027 approaches, the Tinubu–El-Rufai drama will likely morph rather than detonate. If El-Rufai’s northern leverage remains intact but non-threatening, reconciliation is inevitable. But if the economy worsens and public discontent mounts, he could become the face of symbolic resistance, not necessarily as a candidate, but as a catalyst.
Meanwhile, Peter Obi’s political future hinges on his ability to convert moral energy into institutional capacity. Without structure or coalition, his movement risks fading into nostalgia, a revolution remembered more for its idealism than its impact.
Politics of Perception and Deception
Nigerian politics thrives on performance and few play the act better than Bola Tinubu and Nasir el-Rufai. Their supposed feud is less about hostility than choreography: El-Rufai plays the rebel to preserve relevance; Tinubu tolerates him to control dissent.
With the opposition fractured and Obi indecisive, the ruling establishment remains largely unchallenged.
As 2027 nears, the loudest quarrels may conceal the quietest understandings. And in that silence, the real architecture of power and its deception continues to unfold.
