As the countdown begins for the conduct of governorship and presidential primaries for the 2027 general elections, eyes are riveted on the political actors positioning themselves to take a shot at the various Government Houses across the states in the South-South geopolitical zone.
Rivers State presents a very dicey scenario. The Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Minister, Nyesom Wike, appears to have shut down the political space in the state, exercising total control over the state chapters of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the only parties that, for now, have a significant presence in the state. With his Rainbow Coalition mantra that allows him to juggle positions and candidates in the APC and PDP, there are no publicly known governorship aspirants for the two parties yet.
The same applies to the factional APC leadership of Emeka Bekee, upon which Tonye Cole ran as a governorship candidate in 2019 and 2023. The faction has been locked in a survival and legitimacy battle, as the Prof. Nentawe-led APC leadership recognizes the Tony Okocha-led executive as the authentic APC leadership in the state. The incumbent Governor, Siminalaye Fubara, who defected from the PDP to the APC, is still smarting from the recent peace deal brokered by President Bola Tinubu, and in the process, practically losing all his bargaining power except for his position as governor.
His second term chance is for now shrouded in conjecture as his benefactor and undisputed leader of both the APC and PDP in the state, Nyesom Wike, has dismissively said no one should bother him with a second term talk for Fubara yet. In a well-publicised tour of the local government areas of the state christened ‘Thank you visit,’ the FCT minister had repeatedly said that a second term for Fubara would kill his political career, asking for forgiveness from the party stakeholders for prevailing on them to allow Fubara to emerge as governor. The minister has maintained that he will play a decisive role in the choice of the next governor of the state.
It remains to be seen if, in the spirit of the latest presidential intervention, Gov. Fubara could squeeze water out of stone and get a second term chance. But beyond Fubara, it was speculated that the FCT minister was looking at the direction of the late Senator Barinada Mpigi as a replacement for Fubara. Mpigi’s choice, it was gathered, was strategic -retaining the governorship slot within the Rivers South East Senatorial District as well as giving the Ogonis the chance to produce the governor for the first time in the history of the state.
Besides, the minister was also said to be considering retaining the governorship slot within the Ijaw ethnic bloc, where Fubara also hails from. But this time, looking at the Executive Director, Finance and Administration at the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC), Boma Iyaye. Wike was said to be instrumental to the appointment of Iyaye, a former commissioner for sports and former House of Assembly member, to the exalted position at the interventionist agency. According to sources, should the minister be prevailed upon to keep the slot within the Rivers South East Senatorial District, aside Fubara, the lot may fall on the current Chairman of the Nigeria Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Senator Magnus Abe.
Abe, a seasoned politician, former state House of Assembly member, former commissioner, secretary to the state government, senator, and the 2023 governorship candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), has had an unfulfilled dream of governing the state. Formerly a close ally of the former governor of the state and immediate past Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi, it was Abe’s quest to become governor against Amaechi’s strategic interest that put a wedge between the two close allies. Now firmly in Wike’s political camp in the state, Abe, who has been very critical of Fubara’s administration, may win the heart of the minister’s allies and become anointed to replace Governor Fubara.
However, everything does not seem to begin and end with Wike’s caprices. It was learnt that a political movement is in the offing in the state, which could challenge the minister’s grip on power and influence when the chips are down. The movement, as gathered, is being coordinated by the former Chief of Staff to Governor Fubara, Edison Ehie, who, according to sources, is still sulking over the manner in which he was sacrificed on the altar of the recent peace deal brokered by President Tinubu. Ehie was sacked by Fubara shortly after the presidential intervention and replaced by Sunny Ewule.
Ehie, who has won many hearts over the way he boldly stood behind Governor Fubara throughout the governor’s political ordeal, is now being seen as the new face of Rivers youths, as many members of the disbanded pro-Fubara group, the Simplified Movement, are said to have rallied behind the Orashi-born politician to chart a new political path in the state. In this group are mostly the local government chairmen who had emerged on the platform of the All Peoples Party (APP) in the election conducted by Fubara, which was later outlawed by the Supreme Court. The membership of the group is said to be swelling on a daily basis as people who are disenchanted with the domineering stance of Wike in the political affairs of the state are daily identifying with the group.
The group, according to insiders, has not adopted any particular political party yet as they put finishing touches on their modus operandi. However, their ultimate mission as learnt is to break River State away from the stranglehold of Wike and his allies and, in effect, free the resources of the state for use for the greater interest of Rivers people.
Meanwhile, the African Democratic Congress (ADC), facing much persecution across many states, is not faring better in Rivers either. After the pomp that attended the introduction of the party in the state by former Governor Rotimi Amaechi, who is angling for the presidential ticket of the party, everything had gone silent until the former minister came last week to formally register with the party in his ward at Ubima in Ikwerre Local Government Area. The exercise was almost marred by the bombing of the party’s secretariat by arsonists suspected to be members of a rival political group. For now, the party is still taking shape in the state. But it is expected that whoever would become the governorship flagbearer of the party would come from the political loins of Amaechi.
The former minister is rebuilding his political career after losing most of his loyalists as he journeyed from the PDP through the APC and now the ADC. He and other leaders of the party in the state would be very circumspect in arriving at the choice of who to fly the flag of the party for the gubernatorial race. But while it appears that prospective aspirants are, for now, watching the political weather before making definitive statements about their ambition, Ogoni-born activist Douglas Fabeke, has braved the odds, declaring that he would be seeking the office of governor of the state on a platform he would unveil later.
He made the declaration while unveiling a development initiative, christened ‘Operation Nehemiah’, which he said is aimed at repositioning the state economically, socially, and spiritually. The activist in 2023 ran for the senatorial seat of Rivers South-East on the platform of the Labour Party. He said he would use the experience gained in 2023 as a launching pad for his quest to vie for the governorship position.
In Edo State, where the governorship election will take place later in 2028, there are feelings that the contest may not be as heated as it was in 2024, considering that the contestants this time may be different and the course of their aspirations will also differ. In 2024, the three top contenders, viz. Senator Monday Okpebholo (APC), Asuen Ighodalo (PDP), and Olumide Akpata (LP) have different issues associated with them and the reasons they aspired to govern the state.
In that election, the then Governor Godwin Obaseki was leaving office having spent his maximum eight years in office, and he had his party, the PDP, flagbearer, Asuen Ighodalo, as his choice of successor. Many factors came into play that thwarted Ighodalo’s aspiration at the polls, chief of which was the perceived high-handedness of his ‘godfather’, Obaseki, in the way he governed the state.
In Akpata’s case, he had a heated primary poll with Kenneth Imansuangbon to secure the LP ticket. In the election proper, Akpata came a distant third behind Okpebholo and Ighodalo. Okpebholo, who emerged as the winner in the election, had a stiff competition securing the APC ticket against Dennis Idahosa, who later emerged as his deputy. This time around, the governorship race will be influenced more by Okpebholo’s achievements.
His contenders within the APC may include a few of those who contested with him in the 2024 primaries. On the list is former federal permanent secretary, Anthony Umakhihe, former Deputy Governor of the state, Chief Lucky Imasuen, former Minister of State for Budget, Clement Agba, and Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu. Pastor Ize-Iyamu, who is now said to be interested in becoming a senator to represent Edo South Senatorial District, may end up not being in the gubernatorial race. From the opposition camp, Akpata and Imansuangbon, both of whom are now in the ADC, may slug it out for the party’s ticket just as they did for the LP ticket in 2024. From the PDP, Ighodalo, who’s now the leader of a faction of the party in the state, may not have to contend with the former deputy governor of the state, Philip Shaibu, who has since moved to the APC and is now the director general of the National Institute for Sports (NIS).
For now, the picture is not yet clear as no politician has come up with his/her intentions to participate in the governorship poll, which is two years ahead.
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In Bayelsa State, going by their rotation principle, the governorship slot will shift to the Bayelsa East, made up of Ogbia, Brass, and Nembe Local Government Areas. The incumbent, Governor Douye Diri, is from the Bayelsa Central Senatorial District, and before him was Seriake Dickson, who is from the Bayelsa West. So, naturally, the Eastern senatorial district will take the center stage.
Sources say the Managing Director of the Niger Delta Development Commission, NDDC, Samuel Ogbuku, is a popular choice among stakeholders. Also, the Speaker of the state House of Assembly, Abraham Ingobere, is another person whose closeness and loyalty to Governor Diri could sway the position to him. Interestingly, the Minister of State for Petroleum (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, is also said to be keenly interested in the position. But if the rotation principle is strictly followed, Lokpobiri might be knocked out since he is from Ekeremor, which is within the Bayelsa West axis.
