With Nigeria still in the early stages of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration, political tensions are already rising over the 2027 elections. Uche Diala, a vocal member of the All Progressives Congress (APC), has sounded the alarm, warning that the party risks repeating the mistakes of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) if it continues down its current path.
In a strongly worded statement, Diala cautioned against growing arrogance within the party, particularly among Tinubu’s supporters from the South West. He recalled how, during the 2019 APC primaries, he had warned that the party could suffer the same fate as the PDP, which lost power after 16 years due to internal miscalculations and overconfidence. He had initially predicted that APC could remain in power at the federal level until 2031, but now, with recent political dynamics, he fears that power could slip away much earlier.
Diala expressed deep concerns over the deteriorating relationship between President Tinubu’s administration and the North, a region that played a crucial role in the 2023 election victory. He pointed out that the North overwhelmingly supported Tinubu, but just two years into his tenure, that alliance appears to be weakening due to missteps, rhetoric, and actions by some South West loyalists.
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Drawing a sharp historical parallel, Diala compared Tinubu’s supporters’ attitude to that of former President Goodluck Jonathan’s camp before the 2015 elections. He reminded Nigerians how Jonathan, despite being backed by a strong PDP coalition, lost the presidency largely due to alienating the North. At the time, Jonathan’s South-South base, fueled by a sense of power and entitlement, underestimated the political weight of the North and paid the ultimate price at the ballot box.
He warned that history could repeat itself if Tinubu’s South West supporters continued down the same path of political arrogance and exclusion. He emphasized that Nigerian politics is not about individual brilliance alone, but about building and maintaining alliances. While Tinubu is undeniably a master strategist, his supporters must recognize that Nigeria’s power structure remains heavily influenced by the North, which has historically played the role of a kingmaker in presidential elections.
Diala urged APC members to focus on delivering real governance and the promised dividends of democracy rather than engaging in divisive politics. He warned that if the party fails to address these growing cracks, it might face a serious electoral backlash in 2027.
With exactly two years left before the next general election Diala believes that the APC must decide whether to heed this warning or risk following in the footsteps of the PDP—a party that once boasted of ruling Nigeria for 60 years but lost power in just 16. The coming months will reveal whether better political judgment prevails or if history will repeat itself once again.
