On May 29, 2025, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu marked two turbulent years as Nigeria’s Commander-in-Chief; a midterm moment that offers a sobering reflection on his polarizing tenure.
Elected on the promise of Renewed Hope, Tinubu’s administration launched a whirlwind of economic reforms and infrastructure projects that earned applause from global financial institutions. But for millions of Nigerians, the past 24 months have been defined by soaring costs, growing insecurity, and a widening gap between policy and reality. Here are the Highlight of reforms that reshaped Nigeria’s Fiscal DNA:
The Highs:
Economic Shock Therapy: Fuel Subsidy Removal and Forex Reform
In his first executive move, Tinubu eliminated the long-standing fuel subsidy, a policy widely regarded as a fiscal sinkhole. Simultaneously, the Central Bank of Nigeria unified the exchange rate, ending the dual-window system that had encouraged arbitrage. These policies drew praise from the World Bank and IMF, which previously estimated Nigeria lost $10 billion annually to fuel subsidies.
By mid-2025, government revenue rose from 7% to 12% of GDP. The foreign exchange backlog of $7 billion was cleared, and external reserves soared from $4 billion to $23 billion. The fiscal deficit narrowed from 5.4% to 3%, and the tax-to-GDP ratio increased from 10% to 13.5%.
“These are critical structural reforms, decades overdue,” said World Bank Country Director Shubham Chaudhuri. “The hard part is translating them into relief for ordinary Nigerians.”
Infrastructure Investment Blitz
The Tinubu administration launched an aggressive infrastructure drive, allocating ₦2.5 trillion to flagship projects like the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway and the Sokoto-Badagry Superhighway, aimed at boosting connectivity and trade. Additional efforts included:
Revamp of the Port Harcourt–Aba rail line; Rehabilitation of the Warri and Port Harcourt refineries; Refurbishment of over 1,000 primary health centres; Establishment of six cancer treatment centres; Boosting Investment and Industry; FDI rose from $4.8 billion in 2023 to $6.2 billion by mid-2025; Oil rig activity quadrupled, attracting over $8 billion in new commitments.
Others are: Trade streamlined via the National Single Window Project; Diaspora bonds tapped to bridge budget deficits; Social Programs: Loans, Credits, and Transfers; NELFUND: 300,000 tertiary students received loans; Consumer Credit Corporation: ₦200 billion disbursed for small businesses and housing; Cash Transfers: ₦570 billion distributed to states to cushion the impact of subsidy removal; New Minimum Wage: Raised to ₦70,000 and NYSC Stipend: Increased from ₦33,000 to ₦77,000
The Lows: Inflation, Insecurity, and Intensifying Poverty
Soaring Inflation and Currency Collapse
Despite macroeconomic gains, inflation surged to nearly 40%, with food inflation at 35%. The naira plummeted from ₦167/$1 to ₦1,600/$1, while petrol prices soared from ₦87 to over ₦1,000 per litre. PwC projected that 13 million more Nigerians would fall into “severe poverty” by the end of 2025.
Exploding Debt and Spending Concerns
Nigeria’s public debt ballooned from ₦49 trillion to a staggering ₦144 trillion, with projections nearing ₦188 trillion by the end of 2025. Critics cited excessive borrowing, extravagant spending on presidential luxuries, and unrealistic oil revenue forecasts.
“The national budget has become fiction,” said economist Dr. Dele Sobowale. “We’re borrowing against fantasy benchmarks.”
Security: Nigeria’s Fragile Underbelly
Despite a record ₦5 trillion defense budget, insecurity remains rampant:
Over 600,000 Nigerians reportedly killed by terrorist and criminal violence since May 2023; Resurgence of Boko Haram in the northeast; Ethnic violence in Plateau, Benue, Taraba, and even the FCT
“Without community-level strategies and state policing, federal efforts will always fall short,” said Dr. Kabir Adamu of Beacon Security.
Faltering Initiatives
CNG Vehicle Scheme: ₦2 trillion project hindered by limited infrastructure and safety concerns
Refinery Projects: Warri refinery produced no petrol; Port Harcourt’s relaunch paused for “maintenance”
Governance at the Crossroads: Decisive or Distracted?
Ministerial Mixed Bag
Wale Edun (Finance): Reduced debt-service ratio from 97% to 68%
Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo (Interior): Digitized passport services, cleared 200,000-passport backlog
Nyesom Wike (FCT): Revamped Abuja’s infrastructure and completed the long-delayed light rail
Critics, however, point to the dominance of “Lagos Boys,” arguing they lack national policy depth.
Spin vs. Substance
While the government’s PR machinery has rolled out town halls and AI-trained media teams, opposition parties and civil society argue there’s a growing gap between official narratives and lived reality.
The Coalition of United Political Parties (CUPP) branded Tinubu’s term “the worst in Nigeria’s history,” citing hunger, the rise in out-of-school children (now over 40 million), and a collapsing healthcare system.
Campaigning Before Governing
Despite economic turmoil, early 2027 campaign activity is already in full swing. Billboards touting Tinubu’s second-term bid blanket urban centers. Opposition leaders accuse the president of prioritizing politics over governance.
“His focus is not on Nigerians—it’s on 2027,” said CUPP spokesperson Mark Adebayo.
Sectoral Snapshot: Agriculture, Health, and Education
Agriculture: Despite support programs, food insecurity persists. AFAN President Kabiru Ibrahim cited insecurity, climate change, and poor mechanization. Between July and December 2024, Nigeria resorted to temporary food imports.
“The government needs to transition from primary production to full agricultural value chains,” said agricultural analyst Fatima Sale.
Healthcare: Public hospitals teeter on the brink of collapse. Many officials seek treatment abroad, while ordinary Nigerians die from preventable diseases. The new cancer centres remain under-equipped, and health insurance expansion has stalled.
Education: Nigeria’s out-of-school population has surged to 40 million. Strikes, poor infrastructure, and chronic underfunding plague public education. Meanwhile, scholarship and loan schemes remain inaccessible to most students.
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Outlook to 2027: Crisis or Course Correction?
Tinubu recently declared, “The worst is behind us.” Inflation is beginning to ease, and rice prices have softened. But without urgent reforms in three critical areas, analysts warn that 2027 could mark a political rupture rather than renewal.
Key Challenges Ahead:
Security Overhaul: State policing and local autonomy are vital
Transparency: Citizens demand clarity on subsidy savings and budget execution
Political Stability: Crackdowns on dissent and early politicking risk deepening divisions
CUPP Blasts Tinubu’s Two-Year Record, Calls Administration “One of Nigeria’s Worst”
The Coalition of United Political Parties (CUPP) has issued a scathing assessment of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s two years in office, describing his administration as “one of the worst in Nigeria’s history.”
In a statement signed by its National Spokesperson, Comrade Mark Adebayo, and released to mark the president’s midterm, the opposition coalition accused Tinubu of deepening national suffering, undermining democracy, and prioritizing political ambition over governance.
“Two years ago, severe hunger came to town in Nigeria through President Bola Ahmed Tinubu,” the CUPP stated. “Government, in its most inhumane identity, ascended the throne. Insecurity became exacerbated. Youth joblessness assumed exponential implosion. Out-of-school children statistics jumped from 20 million to almost 40 million. Inflation has leapt to over 36%.”
The coalition further lambasted the administration for what it called the collapse of essential services. It pointed to the state of Nigeria’s diplomatic missions—many of which remain inactive due to unappointed ambassadors—and the country’s growing global isolation.
“The country’s health institutions are now worse than mere consulting centers. The president and his cabinet prefer foreign hospitals while ordinary Nigerians die from treatable illnesses at home,” the statement read.
On the education front, the CUPP criticized the decline in standards and access, alleging that quality education has become a privilege reserved for the wealthy and politically connected.
CUPP also raised alarm over Nigeria’s ballooning public debt, which it claimed would reach ₦188 trillion by the end of 2025. The group questioned the whereabouts of the funds saved from the removal of fuel subsidy—a key early policy move by Tinubu—and described the government’s borrowing plans as “deliberate impoverishment” of future generations.
“President Tinubu’s administration has plunged Nigeria into an economic nightmare. The debt portfolio is scandalous, yet the government continues to borrow recklessly,” Adebayo said.
The group expressed concern over what it described as the president’s premature focus on re-election rather than governance.
“President Tinubu has spent the last six months campaigning for a second term, in violation of the 1999 Constitution and the Electoral Act. His billboards and posters have been visible across the country for months,” the CUPP spokesperson alleged.
It also accused the government of suppressing dissent and shrinking civic space through misuse of security agencies, particularly on social media platforms.
“Nigerians are no longer free to express themselves. The civic space is being stifled in a flagrant and totalitarian manner,” the statement added.
Declaring that “Nigerians are tired,” CUPP warned that a second term for President Tinubu would be “extremely disastrous,” while reaffirming its commitment to presenting a “competent, patriotic, and compassionate” alternative in the 2027 presidential election.
“President Tinubu has no answers to Nigeria’s socioeconomic and security challenges,” the coalition said. “Things can only get worse for as long as he remains in power.”
Atiku Slams Tinubu’s Two-Year Performance
Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has delivered a scathing critique of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration, describing it as “incompetent, disconnected, and anti-people.” Speaking after Tinubu’s second anniversary in office, Atiku—who was the 2023 presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)—said Nigeria has never experienced such economic hardship, social inequality, and policy failure in its democratic history.
In a statement on Wednesday, Atiku warned that opposition leaders would not be silenced or allow the country to slip into a one-party state, stressing that a broad opposition coalition is Nigeria’s last hope for democratic revival and national recovery.
He accused the Tinubu-led government of worsening poverty, encouraging reckless public spending, and pushing Nigeria into a deep economic crisis.
“In just two years, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration has proven to be one of the most incompetent, disconnected, and anti-people governments in Nigeria’s democratic history,” Atiku said.
He decried what he called an “elite-focused” governance style, alleging that public officials under Tinubu are living in excess while ordinary Nigerians face hunger and deprivation.
Quoting the Global Hunger Index 2024, Atiku said Nigeria now ranks 18th among countries worst affected by hunger and malnutrition—overtaking even war-torn Sudan in the number of malnourished children.
The former Vice President also raised alarm over Nigeria’s escalating public debt under Tinubu’s administration.
“When President Tinubu assumed office in 2023, Nigeria’s total public debt stood at approximately ₦49 trillion. In just two years, that figure has skyrocketed to ₦144 trillion—a 150% increase,” Atiku stated.
He criticized the administration’s borrowing practices and warned that plans for further foreign loans could push the debt stock to ₦183 trillion, blaming the federal government for driving Nigeria into a fiscal crisis.
“While the federal government racks up debt, state governments have shown more discipline, reducing their debt levels from ₦5.86 trillion to ₦3.97 trillion,” he added.
Atiku also condemned recent policy decisions such as fee hikes in education and identity management, stating they disproportionately affect the poor. He cited the 75% fee hike by the National Identity Management Commission (NIMC) and increases in public university tuition as examples of a growing class divide.
“Policy after policy under this administration has targeted the poor while providing relief and advantage to the rich,” he lamented.
“We reject any attempt to turn Nigeria into a one-party state where dissent is silenced and power is abused. We are building a strong, united opposition coalition—one that will challenge the excesses of this administration,” Atiku added.
Legacy at Stake
President Tinubu’s first two years have been anything but ordinary. From sweeping reforms that reset Nigeria’s fiscal trajectory to widespread economic and social pain, the stakes have never been higher.
Will Tinubu be remembered as a bold reformer who pulled Nigeria from the brink—or as a leader whose policies deepened inequality and insecurity?
As 2027 looms, the answer will not come from global banks or policy analysts—but from the Nigerian people.