At the birth of the current democratic dispensation in 1999, the defunct Alliance for Democracy (AD), formed on September 9, 1998, emerged as the strongest political force in the South West, winning the governorship elections in Lagos, Oyo, Ogun, Ondo, Ekiti and Osun States, respectively. The party was formed to shore up the dwindling political fortunes of the Yoruba in the South West, who still felt bitter over the annulment of the June 12, 1996, presidential election by ex-military President Ibrahim Babaginda. That election was widely believed to have been won by late Chief MKO Abiola, also of the Yoruba stock. The AD further won majority of the seats in the National Assembly and the state Houses of Assembly.
Even though former President Olusegun Obasanjo of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) won the 1999 presidential election and also hailed from the South West, he was taunted and hunted by the fact that his home base, which is the South West was in the firm grip of an opposition party. The Obasanjo presidency knew that for the incumbent to be able to secure a second term in 2003, Obasanjo must gain an inroad in the South West.
The outcome of the 2003 general polls didn’t surprise many avid political watchers, following the tsunami that swept through the South West, as the AD which hitherto, had an unassailable control of the politics of the region was swept out of power in five out of the six states in the South West, with the only surviving state being Lagos under then Governor Bola Tinubu. The PDP won the governorship seats in Oyo, Ogun, Osun, Ekiti and Ondo States, including the majority seats in the National Assembly and state Houses of Assembly. To better understand the impact of the 2003 general elections on the politics of the South West, a revisit of the votes amassed by Obasanjo in 1999 as compared to 2003 would suffice. The Owu born ex-president polled a meagre 1,092,196 votes in the 1999 presidential election, but this number spiraled to a whopping 5,042,678 votes in 2003.
In Obasanjo’s home state of Ogun alone, he scored 1,360,170 as against the 143,564 votes in 1999. Chief Bode George, a close ally of Obasanjo was the major architect in the redrawing of the political map of the South West. But mention must be made by, after the national leadership of the party opted not to field a presidential candidate based on the directives from late Chief Abraham Adesanya, then the leader of Afenifere, the apex pan-Yoruba socio-cultural group. The late Chief Adesanya had directed that the AD and its supporters vote for Obasanjo, the PDP candidate because he is a Yoruba man.
Having realized being outsmarted and played by Obasanjo, the heavyweights within the AD under the guidance of Tinubu, began seeking the options available to them to regain control of the South West politically. Cracks within the AD began to slowly emerge and the final straw was the leadership tussle between Chief Bisi Akande and Senator Mojisoluwa Akintenwa, resulting in Tinubu moving his loyalists to form an alliance with the Justice Party (JP), the Advance Congress of Democrats (ACD), including several other minor political parties in September 2006 to form the Action Congress (AC) with Chief Akande as national chairman.
In the 2007 general elections, the AC regained the lost ground it had lost to the PDP in the South West, winning the governorship elections in Oyo, Osun, Ekiti, Lagos and Ogun States, capturing 15 senatorial seats and having the majority in six state Houses of Assembly. Following its refusal to join the government of the late President Umaru Yar’Adua to form a unity government, the AC was rocked by internal crisis leading to the resignation of its then National Secretary, Bashir Dalhatu.
Preparing for the 2011 general elections, the AC in a conscious attempt to metamorphose into a national party and attract more membership and supporters, instead of being seen as a regional party with the South West as its base, changed its name to the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN). The ACN recaptured Oyo State and Ogun State, with Abiola Ajimobi and Ibikunle Amosun emerging as governors, respectively, while still retaining Lagos State. Gubernatorial elections were not held in Osun, Ondo and Ekiti States. The party therefore, maintained its dominance of the political landscape of the South West, before merging in 2013, with the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) and the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) to form the All Progressives Congress (APC), now the ruling party at the national level.
To demonstrate its acceptance and popularity in the South West, the APC won the majority votes in five of the six states in the region, except Ekiti State during the presidential election in 2015. It retained Lagos, Oyo and Ogun States in the governorship poll, and also performed well in the National Assembly and state Houses of Assembly elections, winning the majority seats in both elections. This feat was repeated at the 2019 general elections, with the APC winning four states in the presidential election, and having five governors in the South West with the PDP recapturing Oyo State.
The APC further showcased its supremacy in the South West as it won a landslide victory in five out of the six states during the 2023 presidential election, narrowly losing Lagos State to the Labour Party (LP). In the governorship elections, the party won in Lagos and Ogun, while losing the PDP in Osun State. However, since then, the APC has won all three off-season governorship elections held in Ekiti and lately, Ondo State.
Based on the outcomes of the off-season polls conducted in these two states by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) under the Tinubu presidency, there are fears that the APC is laying the groundwork to win the 2027 presidential election in the South West, through its control of four states in the region and ultimately, secure a second term for Tinubu.
National Publicity Secretary of the PDP, Debo Ologunagba, reacting to the Ondo election result, alleged that the result was skewed by INEC in favour of the APC, asserting that the poll was marred by vote-buying and intimidation of voters, an act he said is capable of disrupting the country’s democracy if it goes unchecked.
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Ologunagba said: “The PDP and indeed, all lovers of democracy in Nigeria and across the world have just witnessed the worst election conducted by the Independent National Electoral Commission. The November 16 governorship election runs short of all expectations and requirements of a free, fair and credible election as it witnessed the height of electoral swindle, deceit and manipulation by the APC.
“This election witnessed widespread election merchandising, monetisation and barefaced vote buying by the APC and its apparatus in government to suppress the genuine aspiration of the people. This devious practice by the APC was rampant and pervasive because the APC have utterly impoverished Nigerians and turned poverty into a weapon of mass subjugation which enabled it to manipulate the election and its outcome. We call the attention of all Nigerians and the international community to this reprehensible practice by the APC as widely witnessed in Ondo State and we demand that a serious action be taken to stem such if Nigeria’s democracy must survive.
However, this claim was faulted by the National Publicity Director of the APC, Bala Ibrahim, who said the ruling party wasn’t surprised that the allegation was coming from the PDP that has been rejected by Nigerians, adding that “if there is an eclipse of the sun or moon in Nigeria, the PDP will blame it on the APC. Even if there is drought, flood or any natural disaster, they will hold the APC responsible. They are failing to understand that times have changed. Nigerians are now conscious of their votes and value of democracy.
“They have now realised that they made a grave mistake by entrusting the PDP to rule the country for 16 years, which resulted in misrule, mismanagement and total disruption of values of the country. So, if there is going to be any election, no matter where and time, the PDP will emerge closer because Nigerians have lost confidence in them. Why is that it is only in state they lose that they always lose confidence in INEC?”
Meanwhile, ex-President Obasanjo has thrown his hat into the debate about the performance of INEC in the 2023 general elections and the off-season polls conducted so far, by calling for electoral reforms and demanding strict scrutiny of the leadership of the electoral umpire. Speaking via a recorded video address at the Chinua Achebe Leadership Forum at Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, United States, Obasanjo stated that Nigerians must ensure that the INEC chairman and his staff were thoroughly vetted, adding that the vetting exercise should yield dispassionate, non-partisan, actors with impeccable reputations.
He said: “As a matter of urgency, we must make sure the INEC chairperson and his or her staff are thoroughly vetted. The vetting exercise should yield dispassionate, non-partisan, actors with impeccable reputations. Nigeria must ensure the appointment of new credible INEC leadership at the federal, state, local government and municipal – city, town, and village levels – with short tenures – to prevent undesirable political influence and corruption, and re-establish trust in the electoral systems by its citizens. The INEC chairperson must not only be absolutely above board, he must also be transparently independent and incorruptible.”
He described the 2023 general elections in Nigeria as a travesty, adding that following the problem-prone exercise, electoral system reform is now among the top targets for change in Nigeria, insisting that Nigeria must find a way to prevent electoral interference at every level and protect elections from foreign as well as local malevolent actors.
